UK Economics Focus Is the housing market heading for a double-dip? Low interest rates alone will not prevent the recent falls in house prices from being extended, perhaps significantly this year. Rather, we expect that the benefits of low interest rates will be... 28th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will inflation ever fall back? The stubbornness of UK inflation has prompted suggestions that there has been an adverse shift in the relationship between growth and inflation and has raised concerns that the low inflation... 26th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Can the economy continue to recover? While we expect the economy to keep expanding, we doubt that the recovery is on the sustainable footing required for it to maintain its recent pace. We expect the combination of the fiscal squeeze... 24th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Housing downturn another blow for consumer spending The dominant themes of this Statement come not from the Chancellor but from the OBR. It now paints a pretty gloomy picture of the immediate economic outlook. Even so, we think its forecasts are not... 30th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Can the spending cuts actually be achieved? The sheer size of the Government’s planned reductions in public spending and the likely weakness of the economy cast major doubts on whether the cuts can actually be achieved in full. But big cuts are... 14th October 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will tighter regulation prevent a recovery in lending? The changes in the regulatory regime currently being decided are unlikely to be the key determinant of banks lending behaviour in the near-term. But tighter regulation threatens to choke off any... 13th September 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is QE finally working? The MPCs preferred measure of the money supply has recently started to grow at the rates the Committee was aiming for when it began its policy of quantitative easing (QE). However, we would be wary of... 17th August 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Fiscal squeeze to slam the brakes on consumer spending We expect the fiscal tightening to leave real household disposable incomes falling by 1% next year and stagnating in 2012 the tightest squeeze since the mid-1970s. As a result, we no longer expect... 21st July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Policy challenges for the new Government The new coalition Government has made an industrious start. But it still faces some major policy challenges if it is to achieve the multiple goals of sorting out the public finances, improving... 15th July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Policy challenges for the new UK Government The new coalition Government has made an industrious start. But it still faces some major policy challenges if it is to achieve the multiple goals of sorting out the public finances, improving... 15th July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Emergency Budget 2010: Tough but tender The new coalition Government has made an industrious start. But it still faces some major policy challenges if it is to achieve the multiple goals of sorting out the public finances, improving... 22nd June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Emergency Budget Preview The new Governments emergency Budget on June 22 will mark the beginning of the biggest fiscal squeeze seen since the end of the Second World War. This will act as a significant drag on the economy... 15th June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Can private sector hiring offset public sector job cuts? With public sector job cuts looming, the outlook for employment hinges on whether or not hiring in the sector picks up pace. While some recent indicators of employment intentions have been encouraging... 7th June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Indebtedness not a big problem for the corporate sector Companies balance sheets are in a broadly healthy state, suggesting that firms can avoid the prolonged period of deleveraging facing other parts of the economy. But there are plenty of other reasons... 1st June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Could we be wrong about inflation? If we are wrong in expecting UK consumer price inflation to fall back over the next year or so, the consequences for the economy - higher interest rates alongside a huge fiscal squeeze - could be... 19th May 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus UK Election Preview - The phoney fiscal debate The outcome of the general election on May 6 is unlikely to transform the basic trajectory of the UK economy over the next five years. Whoever gains power will find their economic policy priorities... 21st April 2010 · 1 min read
