UK Economics Focus What more can the policymakers do? There are no easy options left for the policymakers – but there are still options. For the MPC, there is not only more QE, but altering the form this takes. For the Government there are plenty of ways... 24th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will falling inflation come to the rescue? A major constraint on economic growth last year – high inflation – now looks set to ease. However, this boost will not prevent household spending from falling again in 2012. Thankfully, near-zero... 23rd January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Just how hard will the euro crisis hit the UK? The economic and financial effects of a limited break-up of the euro-zone commencing this year could knock some 3% to 4% off the level of UK GDP by the end of 2013. A bigger, more disorderly, break-up... 19th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus What should we expect from QE2? This was a neutral, steady-as-she-goes budget, with few implications for the macro-economy. From his speech, the Chancellor came across as wanting to be radical, but the measures failed to live up to... 13th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Statement 2011 The dominant themes of this Statement come not from the Chancellor but from the OBR. It now paints a pretty gloomy picture of the immediate economic outlook. Even so, we think its forecasts are not... 29th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The Chancellor’s hands are tied The ailing economy desperately needs more support and yet the Chancellor is more hemmed in than ever by the fiscal position. With no money to spend, Mr Osborne will instead use the Autumn Statement to... 22nd November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will retail spending prove resilient again? One puzzle during the recent recession was the way in which retail sales held up so well relative to overall consumer spending. But we find it hard to justify why retail should continue to prove this... 23rd August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Does the Government need a Plan B? The Government is unlikely to switch to a Plan B incorporating a markedly slower pace of fiscal consolidation unless the economy is very weak or even in recession. Accordingly, the outlook under Plans... 19th July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Can consumers stand the pressure? The economy has been recovering for almost two years, yet many consumers will be feeling worse off than they did during the recession. With the squeeze on real pay likely to intensify even further, we... 12th July 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Does inflation offer a way out of the debt crisis? Deliberately embracing higher inflation as a way out of the sovereign debt crisis could have disastrous consequences. Instead, for most advanced countries, wherever it is feasible, a combination of... 14th June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Could the recovery cope with a rate rise? There seems to be an assumption that a modest rise in interest rates, of say 25bps or 50bps, would be relatively harmless for the real economy. But we think that even a minor policy tightening could... 30th March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2011: Still banking on Plan A The Budget was a fairly cautious affair, with the Chancellor introducing a fiscally neutral package of measures and hence sticking closely to the existing austerity plans. Nonetheless, the Government... 23rd March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2011 Preview The Budget on March 23rd will probably include some minor measures to ease concerns over the economy and sky-high oil prices. But the Coalition Government is not likely to signal any significant... 15th March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Keeping an eye on the 2011 pay round This Focus sets out the key pay settlements which are likely to be concluded in the coming months. A number of settlements have already been concluded this year and data provider IDS has reported that... 3rd March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Can the resilience of corporate profits last? Corporate profits held up remarkably well during the recent economic downturn. But a closer look at the factors that explain this resilience suggests that profits over the next couple of years are... 14th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is GDP higher than we think? A number of puzzles in the UK economy would be resolved if it turned out that GDP has been higher over the past couple of years than the official figures suggest. However, the evidence – while not... 2nd February 2011 · 1 min read
