UK Economics Focus The implications of the proposed inflation reforms Last week, methodological reforms to correct long-standing deficiencies in the RPI, RPIX and CPI inflation measures became a step closer to being implemented. These reforms look set to have a big... 26th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Our forecasts for types of consumer spending In this Focus, we review the way we forecast the different types of consumer spending. Slower growth of spending on essentials should allow a gradual recovery in nominal discretionary spending over... 10th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Do recessions damage supply? Some historical evidence Some key historical evidence does not support the view that major recessions inevitably permanently damage an economy’s supply capacity. Indeed, economies’ capacity to produce goods and services can... 28th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Policy dilemmas – growth versus austerity The poor economic outlook means that the ongoing growth versus austerity debate is just as relevant to the UK as to the rest of Europe. And it now looks like we may have reached the point where the... 13th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How will firms and households fare? With the drag from the euro-zone crisis on the UK economy set to grow, the chances of a decent recovery rest heavily on a strong revival in domestic spending. But neither firms nor households appear... 9th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will the euro-zone crisis undermine London property values? Prices in London’s prime property markets, especially residential, look very vulnerable to a major financial market shock, or anything that might undermine investors’ desire to use London property as... 4th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Would more QE do any good? As part of its renewed drive to rejuvenate the economy, the MPC looks set to announce more purchases of government bonds soon. But further gilt purchases may do little good and could even become... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is the household saving adjustment complete? The household saving ratio (saving as a share of income) has risen back to its long-run average, but we doubt that the adjustment is complete. We think that the rise in saving has further to go and... 25th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Fiscal challenges to remain beyond current squeeze The UK’s current deficit reduction plan offers to some the happy prospect of a smaller public sector in the future. But the fiscal consequences of the UK’s ageing population may frustrate such... 20th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Could the Olympic flame reignite the recovery? As the Olympic torch arrives in Britain, hopes are building that Greece’s greatest cultural legacy could help to offset some of the adverse impact of its current debt crisis on the UK economy. However... 17th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is household debt a problem? In our view, recent suggestions that the high level of UK household debt is not a problem are complacent. We continue to think that further deleveraging by households will hold back consumer spending... 9th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will productivity growth ever recover? The UK has now experienced about four years of below-average productivity growth. We remain sceptical that this means that productivity growth has been permanently damaged. So we still think that a... 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2012: Not rocking the boat This was a neutral, steady-as-she-goes budget, with few implications for the macro-economy. From his speech, the Chancellor came across as wanting to be radical, but the measures failed to live up to... 21st March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2012 Preview The Chancellor’s resolve to stick to his austerity plans appears to be as strong as ever. We expect another fiscally neutral Budget, with flagship measures such as another rise in the personal tax... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Why is the UK lagging behind? Since the financial crisis began, the UK has been the worst performer of all the major advanced economies. And the factors that explain the underperformance, together with new shocks that look set to... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How will UK property markets fare in 2012? A few local hot-spots aside, 2011 was not a great year for UK property markets. But the signs are that 2012 will be worse. Activity will remain weak and both commercial and residential property prices... 25th January 2012 · 1 min read
