UK Economics Focus Is household debt a problem? In our view, recent suggestions that the high level of UK household debt is not a problem are complacent. We continue to think that further deleveraging by households will hold back consumer spending... 9th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will productivity growth ever recover? The UK has now experienced about four years of below-average productivity growth. We remain sceptical that this means that productivity growth has been permanently damaged. So we still think that a... 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2012: Not rocking the boat This was a neutral, steady-as-she-goes budget, with few implications for the macro-economy. From his speech, the Chancellor came across as wanting to be radical, but the measures failed to live up to... 21st March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2012 Preview The Chancellor’s resolve to stick to his austerity plans appears to be as strong as ever. We expect another fiscally neutral Budget, with flagship measures such as another rise in the personal tax... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Why is the UK lagging behind? Since the financial crisis began, the UK has been the worst performer of all the major advanced economies. And the factors that explain the underperformance, together with new shocks that look set to... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How will UK property markets fare in 2012? A few local hot-spots aside, 2011 was not a great year for UK property markets. But the signs are that 2012 will be worse. Activity will remain weak and both commercial and residential property prices... 25th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus What more can the policymakers do? There are no easy options left for the policymakers – but there are still options. For the MPC, there is not only more QE, but altering the form this takes. For the Government there are plenty of ways... 24th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will falling inflation come to the rescue? A major constraint on economic growth last year – high inflation – now looks set to ease. However, this boost will not prevent household spending from falling again in 2012. Thankfully, near-zero... 23rd January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Just how hard will the euro crisis hit the UK? The economic and financial effects of a limited break-up of the euro-zone commencing this year could knock some 3% to 4% off the level of UK GDP by the end of 2013. A bigger, more disorderly, break-up... 19th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus What should we expect from QE2? This was a neutral, steady-as-she-goes budget, with few implications for the macro-economy. From his speech, the Chancellor came across as wanting to be radical, but the measures failed to live up to... 13th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Statement 2011 The dominant themes of this Statement come not from the Chancellor but from the OBR. It now paints a pretty gloomy picture of the immediate economic outlook. Even so, we think its forecasts are not... 29th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The Chancellor’s hands are tied The ailing economy desperately needs more support and yet the Chancellor is more hemmed in than ever by the fiscal position. With no money to spend, Mr Osborne will instead use the Autumn Statement to... 22nd November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will retail spending prove resilient again? One puzzle during the recent recession was the way in which retail sales held up so well relative to overall consumer spending. But we find it hard to justify why retail should continue to prove this... 23rd August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Does the Government need a Plan B? The Government is unlikely to switch to a Plan B incorporating a markedly slower pace of fiscal consolidation unless the economy is very weak or even in recession. Accordingly, the outlook under Plans... 19th July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Can consumers stand the pressure? The economy has been recovering for almost two years, yet many consumers will be feeling worse off than they did during the recession. With the squeeze on real pay likely to intensify even further, we... 12th July 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Does inflation offer a way out of the debt crisis? Deliberately embracing higher inflation as a way out of the sovereign debt crisis could have disastrous consequences. Instead, for most advanced countries, wherever it is feasible, a combination of... 14th June 2011 · 1 min read
