UK Economics Focus Is consumer spending facing a lost decade? There is at last light at the end of the tunnel for consumer demand. But while we expect some sort of recovery in consumer spending to get going relatively soon, we expect that recovery to be very... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Nominal GDP target not a silver bullet The idea of nominal GDP targeting is gaining ground in academic circles as an alternative way for policymakers to boost the struggling economy when interest rates are close to zero. The case for a... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Sector insight: pubs & restaurants After suffering heavily in the recession, spending in the pubs and restaurants sector is likely to recover even more gradually than overall consumer spending over the next year or two. But within this... 24th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is the output gap a crack or a chasm? There is currently a widespread view that, despite the economy’s prolonged weakness, spare capacity is limited. This judgement is the key factor driving the scale of fiscal consolidation, as well as... 12th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Are the fiscal rules about to be broken? There is a significant chance that the OBR will judge that the Chancellor is on course to miss at least one of his fiscal rules when it revises its forecasts for the Autumn Statement. Rather than... 8th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Sector insight: food In the near-term, we expect food sales to increase their share of overall consumer spending, in both nominal and real terms. Admittedly, the slowdown in food price inflation will bear down on values... 8th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The implications of the proposed inflation reforms Last week, methodological reforms to correct long-standing deficiencies in the RPI, RPIX and CPI inflation measures became a step closer to being implemented. These reforms look set to have a big... 26th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Our forecasts for types of consumer spending In this Focus, we review the way we forecast the different types of consumer spending. Slower growth of spending on essentials should allow a gradual recovery in nominal discretionary spending over... 10th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Do recessions damage supply? Some historical evidence Some key historical evidence does not support the view that major recessions inevitably permanently damage an economy’s supply capacity. Indeed, economies’ capacity to produce goods and services can... 28th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Policy dilemmas – growth versus austerity The poor economic outlook means that the ongoing growth versus austerity debate is just as relevant to the UK as to the rest of Europe. And it now looks like we may have reached the point where the... 13th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How will firms and households fare? With the drag from the euro-zone crisis on the UK economy set to grow, the chances of a decent recovery rest heavily on a strong revival in domestic spending. But neither firms nor households appear... 9th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will the euro-zone crisis undermine London property values? Prices in London’s prime property markets, especially residential, look very vulnerable to a major financial market shock, or anything that might undermine investors’ desire to use London property as... 4th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Would more QE do any good? As part of its renewed drive to rejuvenate the economy, the MPC looks set to announce more purchases of government bonds soon. But further gilt purchases may do little good and could even become... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is the household saving adjustment complete? The household saving ratio (saving as a share of income) has risen back to its long-run average, but we doubt that the adjustment is complete. We think that the rise in saving has further to go and... 25th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Fiscal challenges to remain beyond current squeeze The UK’s current deficit reduction plan offers to some the happy prospect of a smaller public sector in the future. But the fiscal consequences of the UK’s ageing population may frustrate such... 20th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Could the Olympic flame reignite the recovery? As the Olympic torch arrives in Britain, hopes are building that Greece’s greatest cultural legacy could help to offset some of the adverse impact of its current debt crisis on the UK economy. However... 17th May 2012 · 1 min read
