UK Economics Focus Are the Government’s fiscal plans crumbling? Halfway through the parliament, the coalition’s fiscal plans are showing sizeable cracks. But any changes to the plans are likely to be modest, maintaining the need for strong monetary support. 19th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will inflation throw another spanner in the works? The continued strength of inflation, resulting in further falls in households’ real pay, raises the question of whether we can ever look forward to a period when it finally eases and so supports... 11th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Monetary policy in flux As part of the question of how monetary policy can support the economy further, attention is turning to whether the policy framework might need to be reformed. A new framework won’t solve the UK’s... 6th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Can companies get the recovery going? Companies represent the one sector of the economy which has the means to spend more and so kick-start a recovery. But we are doubtful whether this sector has the motive. A number of factors will... 31st January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Consumer spending in London will continue to outperform Between 2006 and 2012 London was probably the only UK region to experience a real rise in consumer spending, of perhaps 0.7% a year. This particularly reflected growth in the financial, professional... 28th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus What would Scottish independence mean for the remaining UK? We think that Scotland’s exit from the Union would be unlikely to benefit the rest of the UK and could even represent a net economic cost. The UK would probably retain some of the disadvantages of... 8th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Statement 2012: More of the same There were few surprises in this Autumn Statement, which simply represented a continuation of the existing strategy. The Statement will do little to get the economy out of its current malaise and a... 5th December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Prospects for different types of spending and consumers A recovery in discretionary spending is in prospect. While tight credit conditions will impede any upturn in outlays on big-ticket items, we think electrical goods, food and clothing should do... 23rd November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Statement 2012 Preview The Chancellor remains hemmed in by the fiscal position. Indeed, he may well have to choose between introducing even more austerity in the Autumn Statement and letting at least one of his fiscal rules... 22nd November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Are retailers’ cost pressures past their worst? After enduring a series of cost shocks in recent years alongside stagnant consumer demand, retailers could be forgiven for thinking that the squeeze on their profits will never cease. Nonetheless, the... 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is consumer spending facing a lost decade? There is at last light at the end of the tunnel for consumer demand. But while we expect some sort of recovery in consumer spending to get going relatively soon, we expect that recovery to be very... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Nominal GDP target not a silver bullet The idea of nominal GDP targeting is gaining ground in academic circles as an alternative way for policymakers to boost the struggling economy when interest rates are close to zero. The case for a... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Sector insight: pubs & restaurants After suffering heavily in the recession, spending in the pubs and restaurants sector is likely to recover even more gradually than overall consumer spending over the next year or two. But within this... 24th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is the output gap a crack or a chasm? There is currently a widespread view that, despite the economy’s prolonged weakness, spare capacity is limited. This judgement is the key factor driving the scale of fiscal consolidation, as well as... 12th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Are the fiscal rules about to be broken? There is a significant chance that the OBR will judge that the Chancellor is on course to miss at least one of his fiscal rules when it revises its forecasts for the Autumn Statement. Rather than... 8th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Sector insight: food In the near-term, we expect food sales to increase their share of overall consumer spending, in both nominal and real terms. Admittedly, the slowdown in food price inflation will bear down on values... 8th October 2012 · 1 min read
