UK Economics Focus Is the economy as strong as the jobs figures suggest? The fact that the official measure of employment is now above its pre-recession peak, while GDP is still about 2.5% below its former high point, calls into question the reliability of the figures. We... 29th April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Opportunities and challenges from the "grey pound" The number of people aged 65 and over is set to increase by more than 4.5m by 2030. While this group currently accounts for less than £1 in every £5 of total spending, this share might rise to £1 in... 3rd April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2013: Steady as she goes – aground As expected, the backdrop to this Budget was yet another downward revision to the OBR’s growth forecasts. This downgrade strikes us as fully justified. Indeed, we are even more pessimistic than the... 20th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Time to tackle the pound? With a review of the monetary framework looking likely, policymakers should consider giving the pound a more explicit role in policy. Committing to a lower pound would not be without its costs; in the... 14th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2013 Preview With the economy still stagnating, Mr Osborne is under more pressure than ever to pull something out of the bag at the Budget on 20th March. But we doubt that he will do anything very bold on the... 11th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Can the UK build its way to a recovery? The construction sector has endured a terrible recession, with double-digit declines in output and employment. In theory, there is scope for a sharp comeback. But given the squeeze on credit and... 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Are the Government’s fiscal plans crumbling? Halfway through the parliament, the coalition’s fiscal plans are showing sizeable cracks. But any changes to the plans are likely to be modest, maintaining the need for strong monetary support. 19th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will inflation throw another spanner in the works? The continued strength of inflation, resulting in further falls in households’ real pay, raises the question of whether we can ever look forward to a period when it finally eases and so supports... 11th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Monetary policy in flux As part of the question of how monetary policy can support the economy further, attention is turning to whether the policy framework might need to be reformed. A new framework won’t solve the UK’s... 6th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Can companies get the recovery going? Companies represent the one sector of the economy which has the means to spend more and so kick-start a recovery. But we are doubtful whether this sector has the motive. A number of factors will... 31st January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Consumer spending in London will continue to outperform Between 2006 and 2012 London was probably the only UK region to experience a real rise in consumer spending, of perhaps 0.7% a year. This particularly reflected growth in the financial, professional... 28th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus What would Scottish independence mean for the remaining UK? We think that Scotland’s exit from the Union would be unlikely to benefit the rest of the UK and could even represent a net economic cost. The UK would probably retain some of the disadvantages of... 8th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Statement 2012: More of the same There were few surprises in this Autumn Statement, which simply represented a continuation of the existing strategy. The Statement will do little to get the economy out of its current malaise and a... 5th December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Prospects for different types of spending and consumers A recovery in discretionary spending is in prospect. While tight credit conditions will impede any upturn in outlays on big-ticket items, we think electrical goods, food and clothing should do... 23rd November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Statement 2012 Preview The Chancellor remains hemmed in by the fiscal position. Indeed, he may well have to choose between introducing even more austerity in the Autumn Statement and letting at least one of his fiscal rules... 22nd November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Are retailers’ cost pressures past their worst? After enduring a series of cost shocks in recent years alongside stagnant consumer demand, retailers could be forgiven for thinking that the squeeze on their profits will never cease. Nonetheless, the... 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
