UK Economics Focus Can retailers rebuild their margins? The outlook for retailers’ costs is brighter than it has been for many years. That said, with only a weak recovery in household incomes in prospect and competitive pressures likely to intensify... 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will unemployment fall sooner than the MPC thinks? There seems to be a general view that the MPC is underestimating how quickly unemployment will fall to the 7% threshold set under forward guidance, helping to explain why markets expect interest rates... 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Can the recovery continue without bank lending? The economic recovery has been gathering pace despite the absence of any pick-up in bank lending. We expect lending to remain weak. Although we don’t think that this will halt the recovery altogether... 31st July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will consumers drive a recovery after all? Growth in consumer spending has been one of the few bright spots for the economy over the past year. But we doubt a continued consumer recovery will be that strong, at least in the near-term. In any... 2nd July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Can Carney save the day? The recent rise in interest rate expectations and gilt yields has boosted the case for Mr Carney to start on a strong note by introducing forward guidance and resuming quantitative easing. Bold action... 27th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will the Government get the housing market going? The Chancellor’s efforts to engineer a sustainable, demand-led recovery in mortgage lending and housebuilding are unlikely to succeed. One possible outcome is that prices simply surge, pushing housing... 27th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Sector insight: clothing Consumers have shown tremendous zeal for buying clothes over the last decade, despite the recession and the squeeze on their incomes. But they have been teased into the shops by falling prices. We... 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is the UK turning Japanese? The UK economy is at risk of following a path that is, if anything, worse than the ‘lost decades’ Japan experienced from the early 1990s. While the UK possesses some advantages Japan lacked, in some... 4th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Why have we been wrong on inflation? While we think that we’ve done a pretty good job of forecasting the economy recently, we readily admit that our record of forecasting inflation has left a lot to be desired. Given the apparently... 8th May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is the economy as strong as the jobs figures suggest? The fact that the official measure of employment is now above its pre-recession peak, while GDP is still about 2.5% below its former high point, calls into question the reliability of the figures. We... 29th April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Opportunities and challenges from the "grey pound" The number of people aged 65 and over is set to increase by more than 4.5m by 2030. While this group currently accounts for less than £1 in every £5 of total spending, this share might rise to £1 in... 3rd April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2013: Steady as she goes – aground As expected, the backdrop to this Budget was yet another downward revision to the OBR’s growth forecasts. This downgrade strikes us as fully justified. Indeed, we are even more pessimistic than the... 20th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Time to tackle the pound? With a review of the monetary framework looking likely, policymakers should consider giving the pound a more explicit role in policy. Committing to a lower pound would not be without its costs; in the... 14th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2013 Preview With the economy still stagnating, Mr Osborne is under more pressure than ever to pull something out of the bag at the Budget on 20th March. But we doubt that he will do anything very bold on the... 11th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Can the UK build its way to a recovery? The construction sector has endured a terrible recession, with double-digit declines in output and employment. In theory, there is scope for a sharp comeback. But given the squeeze on credit and... 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
