Global Economics Focus The shape of the fractured world economy in 2024 Our expanded Global Fracturing database allows clients to analyse how geopolitical pressures are reshaping global economic and financial activity. Here, we highlight some of the key findings. 16th November 2023 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Statement 2023 Preview - Short-term political gain worsens long-term fiscal pain With the government still languishing far behind in the opinion polls and an election required before the end of January 2025, the Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, is under more pressure than ever to pull... 15th November 2023 · 20 mins read
UK Economics Focus Lessons on taming inflation from the 1970s and 1980s One key lesson from the bouts of inflation in the 1970s and 1980s is that core inflation faded only once a loosening in the labour market drove down the job vacancy rate to more normal levels. We... 2nd August 2023 · 11 mins read
Global Economics Focus Introducing our new financial conditions indices (FCIs) We have revamped our financial conditions indices (FCIs) for DM economies. This document sets out a framework for analysing financial conditions, explains our methodology, presents and interprets our... 18th April 2023 · 20 mins read
UK Economics Focus Spring Budget – Generous, but lacking a long-term growth plan The Budget has taken a bit of a backseat given the renewed worries about the health of the global banking system, but the Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, was a bit more generous than we expected and probably... 15th March 2023 · 14 mins read
UK Economics Focus Spring Budget 2023 Preview We expect the Spring Budget on 15 th March to contain some giveaways confined to 2023/24. But a downgrade to the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) medium-term GDP growth forecasts will prevent... 8th March 2023 · 17 mins read
UK Economics Focus What would a Labour government mean for the economy? Labour’s big lead in the polls raises the question of what difference a Labour government would make to the economic outlook. The answer is probably not much. A tight grip on the public finances is... 9th January 2023 · 26 mins read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Fiscal Statement – Restoring credibility In his Autumn Statement, the Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, appears to have pulled off the tricky task of reassuring the financial markets of the government’s fiscal discipline while also managing not to... 17th November 2022 · 14 mins read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Statement November 2022 – Preview In his Autumn Statement on 17 th November the Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, faces a deep dilemma. If he wants to reassure the markets, he will have to announce early action in the form of a big fiscal... 10th November 2022 · 19 mins read
FX Markets Focus What to make of the sterling quagmire While the UK government’s apparent U-turn on fiscal policy offers some hope of relief for sterling, we think the outlook remains precarious. We continue to expect that sterling will lose further... 20th October 2022 · 12 mins read
UK Economics Focus Medium-Term Fiscal Plan October 2022 – Preview As the new Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, unveils whether, when and how he will put public debt on a sustainable path in his Medium-Term Fiscal Plan on Monday 31st October, the big question will be whether... 20th October 2022 · 15 mins read
UK Economics Focus Spring Fiscal Statement – Big political bang, smaller economic boost The Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, provided more support to the economy than we had expected over the next few years in today’s Spring Fiscal Statement, but he could have gone further in 2022/23. Instead... 23rd March 2022 · 12 mins read
UK Economics Focus Spring Fiscal Statement 2022 – Preview The Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, will use his Spring Statement on 23 rd March to soften the blow for households facing rising energy and food costs. However, any hopes that he will announce a big handout... 16th March 2022 · 17 mins read
UK Economics Focus Fewer workers, higher wages We think that most of the fall in the size of the UK’s labour force since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic should eventually be reversed. Even so, we wouldn’t be surprised if this took another two... 14th March 2022 · 19 mins read
UK Economics Budget October 2021 – OBR delivers for Sunak This Budget was perhaps more notable for what the Chancellor didn’t do rather than what he did. The OBR handed Rishi Sunak a significant upgrade to its forecasts for the public finances but, while the... 27th October 2021 · 14 mins read
UK Economics Focus The economics of Scottish independence look more difficult The interactions between Brexit, the deterioration in Scotland’s fiscal situation and the continued lack of an easy option for the currency have made the economics of Scottish independence even more... 7th September 2021 · 28 mins read
