RBI Watch Another rate cut likely The MPC is likely to use the recent confirmation that GDP growth slowed in Q4 and the current low rate of headline inflation as justification for another interest rate cut at the conclusion of its... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
RBI Watch New governor to lay groundwork for policy loosening We agree with financial market expectations and the analyst consensus that interest rates will stay on hold at the conclusion of the RBI’s meeting on 7th February – the first under the stewardship of... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
RBI Watch On hold for now, but tightening cycle not over yet The recent drop in headline inflation, coupled with the sharp fall in global oil prices, should be enough to ensure that the RBI keeps policy rates on hold at the conclusion of its meeting on... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Policy rates set to be hiked again Ever since starting its rate-hiking cycle in June, the RBI made clear that the future path of monetary policy will be determined by incoming data. With GDP growth surging to a two-year high in Q2 and... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Another rate hike likely When hiking interest rates at its most recent meeting in June, the RBI made clear that the future path of monetary policy will be determined in large part by incoming data. With several indicators... 26th July 2018 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Stage is set for a rate hike The consensus is expecting the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to keep rates on hold at the upcoming meeting that concludes on Wednesday 6th June. But the hawkish tone of the previous meeting’s policy... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Policy tightening on the horizon The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) looks set to keep its policy rates on hold at the meeting that ends on Thursday 5th April. But we think that elevated core inflation and looser fiscal policy will... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Debate will soon turn to tightening We are in agreement with financial market and analyst expectations that rates will be left on hold at the upcoming policy meeting of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Wednesday 7th February. However... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Government won’t get its wish Rumours that members of the government are attempting to pressure the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to loosen monetary policy are nothing new, although continued efforts to undermine the central bank’s... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
RBI Watch No scope for further loosening We are in agreement with financial market and analyst expectations of a rate hold in the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) upcoming policy meeting on 4th October. Further ahead, some are still expecting... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Rate cut not a foregone conclusion Financial markets and a large majority of analysts are braced for a rate cut at the Reserve Bank of India’s policy meeting next week. But the RBI has developed a taste for springing surprises recently... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Weak GDP and inflation data unlikely to sway RBI The weakness of the latest GDP and inflation data has reignited talk that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may loosen at the upcoming policy meeting on 7th June. However, more timely indicators suggest... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
RBI Watch RBI may have to tighten soon In light of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) signalling the end of the loosening cycle in its most recent policy meeting in February, most analysts are now expecting the central bank to keep rates on... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Rate cut not a done deal Financial markets and a large majority of analysts are braced for a rate cut at the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) policy meeting next week. But, despite the continued damage and uncertainty caused by... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Dealing with demonetisation The liquidity-draining measures that were eventually introduced by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to deal with the rush of cash entering the banking system after the demonetisation announcement have... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
RBI Watch New governor to opt for policy continuity Much of the commentary in the run-up to Dr Urjit Patel’s first policy meeting as RBI governor on 4th October has been focused on whether he will take on the mantle of his predecessor Raghuram Rajan... 28th September 2016 · 1 min read
