RBI Watch Tightening to begin with reverse repo hike After months of incremental moves, we think the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will take a decisive step towards policy tightening by hiking the reverse repo rate at the conclusion of its MPC meeting on... 3rd February 2022 · 6 mins read
RBI Watch MPC to hold rates in face of Omicron uncertainty Whereas many EM central banks have been hiking rates aggressively, the RBI has been taking only baby steps towards policy tightening over the past couple of months. And the emergence of the Omicron... 1st December 2021 · 6 mins read
RBI Watch Rate hikes remain a distant prospect Policy rates are highly likely to be left unchanged at the conclusion of the RBI’s upcoming MPC meeting on Friday 8 th October, particularly given the recent drop in inflation. The committee might... 29th September 2021 · 6 mins read
RBI Watch RBI in no rush to tighten Policy rates are highly likely to be left unchanged at the conclusion of the RBI’s upcoming MPC meeting on 6 th August, particularly given that inflation now appears to have peaked. Further ahead, we... 29th July 2021 · 7 mins read
RBI Watch Policy to remain loose for a long time yet We agree with financial markets and the analyst consensus that policy rates will be left on hold at the conclusion of the RBI’s upcoming MPC meeting on 4 th June, particularly given that the worst of... 27th May 2021 · 6 mins read
RBI Watch RBI unlikely to follow its EM peers EM monetary policy has turned decidedly more hawkish in recent weeks. But, with a renewed surge COVID-19 infections a downside risk to India’s recovery, we don’t think the Reserve Bank will be joining... 29th March 2021 · 6 mins read
RBI Watch Don’t rule out a rate cut Financial markets and analysts appear convinced that policy rates will be left on hold at the conclusion of the MPC meeting on Friday 5 th February, but we aren’t so sure. We think the recent sharp... 27th January 2021 · 6 mins read
RBI Watch Policy will remain loose for a long time to come We agree with financial markets and the consensus that India’s policy rates will be left unchanged at the conclusion of the MPC meeting on Friday. Further ahead however, we think that markets are... 30th November 2020 · 6 mins read
RBI Watch Loosening cycle is not over yet We agree with market and analyst expectations that the Reserve Bank’s new-look MPC will keep rates on hold at the conclusion of its meeting on Thursday 1st October. But with inflation set to drop... 23rd September 2020 · 6 mins read
RBI Watch Tepid recovery to prompt further easing The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been emphatic in its response to the coronavirus crisis but, given the severity of the economic downturn and signs that the post-lockdown recovery is stalling... 28th July 2020 · 6 mins read
RBI Watch Stepping up the coronavirus response The RBI has so far taken only piecemeal steps in its response the coronavirus outbreak. But with the virus now spreading rapidly in India and with containment measures set to take an enormous economic... 26th March 2020 · 6 mins read
RBI Watch Easing cycle at an end Policy rates look set to be kept on hold at the conclusion of the RBI’s meeting on Thursday 6th February. Further ahead, the analyst consensus still expects a resumption in the easing cycle once food... 29th January 2020 · 6 mins read
RBI Watch Rates to drop to lowest in almost a decade We agree with financial market and analyst expectations that rates will be cut by another 25bp at the conclusion of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) policy meeting on Thursday 5th December. This... 28th November 2019 · 6 mins read
RBI Watch MPC likely to revert to “traditional” cut The key question ahead of the MPC meeting that concludes on Friday 4th October is not whether the committee will opt to cut rates again, but rather by how much. We think it will jettison the... 26th September 2019 · 6 mins read
RBI Watch Under the wings of doves The MPC – now even more firmly under the control of doves following the recent surprise resignation of Viral Acharya – is likely to use the current low rate of headline inflation as justification for... 31st July 2019 · 7 mins read
RBI Watch Three cuts in a row The MPC is likely to use the current low rate of headline inflation as justification for a third consecutive rate cut at the conclusion of its policy meeting on Thursday 6th June. But with a growing... 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
