RBA Watch Why we are no longer expecting more rate cuts The Reserve Bank of Australia will almost certainly leave interest rates on hold at 1.5% at the meeting on Tuesday 2nd May and, in a change to our central forecast, we now no longer expect it to cut... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
RBA Watch The RBA’s primary concern may soon change Although the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting on Tuesday 4th April won’t be very exciting, as the RBA will leave interest rates at 1.5% for the sixth meeting in a row, events over the next month... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Lowe may have to soften his stance later this year Recent comments by Governor Lowe have made it pretty clear that the Reserve Bank of Australia doesn’t intend to cut interest rates further, including at its next policy meeting on Tuesday 7 th March... 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Rates to fall to 1.0% in the second half of the year The Reserve Bank of Australia will almost certainly leave interest rates on hold at 1.5% at its policy meeting on Tuesday 7 th February, but its new forecasts to be published in the Statement on... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Talk of rate hikes is premature The Reserve Bank of Australia is unlikely to play either Santa or Scrooge at its meeting on Tuesday 6th December, as it will almost certainly leave interest rates on hold at 1.5%. And we believe that... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Rate cutting cycle may not be finished yet While the third quarter inflation data suggest that there is an outside chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates from 1.50% to 1.25% at its policy meeting on Tuesday 1 st... 27th October 2016 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Rates on hold, but easing cycle isn’t over The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) next policy meeting on Tuesday 4 th October will be the first led by the new Governor, Philip Lowe, but that’s the only thing we expect to change. Interest rates... 28th September 2016 · 1 min read
RBA Watch RBA not in a rush, but rates may fall to 1.0% next year Glenn Stevens is unlikely to end his decade as Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia with a bang, as interest rates will almost certainly be left at 1.5% at his last policy meeting on Tuesday 6th... 30th August 2016 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Mixed inflation figures won’t prevent cut to 1.50% While the second-quarter inflation figures were somewhat mixed, we still expect that the most likely outcome at the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy meeting on Tuesday 2nd August is an interest rate... 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Brexit volatility won't prompt July rate cut The recent volatility in global financial markets triggered by the UK’s vote to leave the EU is unlikely to prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates from 1.75% to 1.50% at its... 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Why interest rates may have to fall to 1% The Reserve Bank of Australia is unlikely to follow May’s 0.25% interest rate cut to 1.75% with another reduction at the meeting on Tuesday 7th June. But we still believe that rates will be reduced to... 2nd June 2016 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Fall in inflation could prompt cut to 1.75% We suspect that news of the sharp fall in underlying inflation in the first quarter will be enough to prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates from 2.00% to 1.75% at its policy... 27th April 2016 · 1 min read
RBA Watch RBA may try to talk the dollar down While the Reserve Bank of Australia will almost certainly leave interest rates at 2.0% at the policy meeting on Tuesday 5th April, it may try to give activity and inflation a boost by attempting to... 30th March 2016 · 1 min read
RBA Watch The RBA’s criteria for further rate cuts haven’t been met…yet The turmoil in financial markets, the stagnation in employment growth and the recent rises in bank lending rates to businesses are unlikely to have spooked the Reserve Bank of Australia by enough to... 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Market turmoil won’t prompt action The recent turmoil in financial markets will have brought a sudden end to Governor Stevens ’“chilled” Christmas period. But this won’t be enough to prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut... 25th January 2016 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Rates on hold, but RBA’s job not done yet The flow of positive economic news since the last Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting makes it a sure bet that the RBA will leave rates on hold at 2.0% for the seventh consecutive month when the... 24th November 2015 · 1 min read
