RBA Watch RBA will lift cash rate to 4.1% The RBA adopted a more hawkish tone at its February meeting and we expect it to hike the cash rate to 4.1% by May. But with recent economic data mostly surprising to the downside, we still see a good... 1st March 2023 · 8 mins read
RBA Watch RBA not done tightening yet The incoming data do not warrant a pause in the RBA’s tightening cycle and we expect the Bank to lift the cash rate to 3.85% by April. However, with inflation set to come off the boil, we forecast... 31st January 2023 · 8 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will hike rates to 3.85% by April With the labour market still very tight and inflation far above the RBA’s target, we expect another 25bp hike next week. However, with inflation starting to level off and consumption growth softening... 30th November 2022 · 8 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will hike rates to 3.85% by April While the strength in Q3 inflation would favour another 50bp rate hike next week, we suspect the Reserve Bank of Australia will stick to a smaller 25bp increase. However, we are pencilling in one more... 26th October 2022 · 8 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will cut rates next year Other analysts are catching up to our view that rates will rise well above 3%. But with Australia not facing a wage-price spiral and higher interest rates set to reverse the recent surge in goods... 27th September 2022 · 8 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to hike rates to 3.60% by early-2023 With the unemployment rate falling to fresh lows and consumer spending remaining resilient, another 50bp hike at the upcoming meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia on 6 th September is all but... 30th August 2022 · 8 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to stick to 50bp hikes While the labour market has surprised to the upside, inflation is moving broadly in line with the Bank’s expectations. We therefore expect the Bank to keep hiking rates by 50bp in August, September... 27th July 2022 · 8 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to keep hiking by 50bp for now The Reserve Bank of Australia will probably lift the cash rate by another 50bp in July and August before reverting to smaller 25bp hikes. However, the risks are tilted towards a prolonged period of... 28th June 2022 · 7 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to lift rates to 3.0% by early-2023 The Reserve Bank of Australia will probably hike its cash rate by another 25bp at its meeting on 7 th June, but we expect it to accelerate its hiking cycle with a 40bp hike in August following the... 31st May 2022 · 7 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to hike aggressively as inflation surges The surge in inflation would warrant a rate hike at the Reserve Bank of Australia’s upcoming meeting on 3 rd May. But we think the Bank will wait until the June meeting, where we now expect the cash... 27th April 2022 · 7 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to hike aggressively as inflation surges With Governor Lowe warming to the idea of tighter policy, we’re sticking to our forecast that the RBA will start to hike rates in June. Our forecast that rates will peak at 1.75% is above the analyst... 30th March 2022 · 8 mins read
RBA Watch Further jump in inflation to prompt June rate hike We now expect the RBA to start hiking in June in response to stubbornly high inflation. And while high household debt is a concern, the extreme tightness of the labour market coupled with continued... 23rd February 2022 · 7 mins read
RBA Watch Surge in inflation will prompt first rate hike in August The rapid tightening of the labour market coupled with the acceleration in underlying inflation will prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to end its asset purchases at its meeting on Tuesday 1 st... 25th January 2022 · 7 mins read
RBA Watch Market pricing on RBA still too optimistic The rapid rebound in activity from the recent lockdowns coupled with a further pick-up in underlying inflation should prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to taper its bond purchases in February and... 30th November 2021 · 7 mins read
RBA Watch RBA’s dovish view increasingly under pressure The acceleration in underlying inflation increases the pressure on the RBA to adjust its forward guidance. But with wage growth still sluggish, we think it will stick to its pledge that rate hikes are... 27th October 2021 · 8 mins read
RBA Watch RBA set to hike in 2023 With the latest lockdowns set to end next month, we expect the RBA to taper its bond purchases in February. We still expect wage growth to accelerate more rapidly than the Bank anticipates and stick... 28th September 2021 · 8 mins read
