Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Green success to meet the realities of Swiss politics The success of environmentalist parties in yesterday’s Federal Elections in Switzerland echoes similar gains elsewhere in Europe in recent months. But given Switzerland’s consensus-based political... 21st October 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Nobel prize money isn’t what it used to be The decades-long downward trend in the Swedish krona means that a Nobel prize in US dollar terms is worth less than half what it was in the early 1990s. With the krona set to fall further by year-end... 14th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank to get no cover from fiscal policy Calls for any fiscal stimulus to support the Swedish economy are likely to fall on deaf ears, so the burden will continue to be entirely on the Riksbank. A combination of a dovish shift by the Bank... 9th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Icelandic easing cycle has further to run Having cut its key interest rate by 25bps this morning, we now expect the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) to stay in easing mode over the coming months and to reduce rates to 2.75% by year-end. 2nd October 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update New (lower) forecasts for Swiss GDP The latest business surveys from Switzerland indicate that the woes in Germany are posing an increasing drag on activity. We have therefore revised our forecasts for Swiss GDP growth down to just 0.5%... 30th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update A primer on Norwegian interest rate expectations Assessing investors’ expectations about the future path of policy interest rates in Norway is not as straightforward as it is in other countries, not least neighbouring Sweden. In this Update we... 27th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swiss manufacturing “strength” masks ailing sectors Most of the recent outperformance of Switzerland’s manufacturing sector relative to Germany’s reflects strong growth in pharmaceuticals. But this has masked struggles in more Germany-facing sectors. 26th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Currency ceiling to come back into the SNB’s toolkit Given that the SNB’s policy rate is already at -0.75%, fears of hitting the so-called ‘reversal rate’ are likely to make it unwilling to cut rates much further. With the ECB once again in easing mode... 25th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update A closer look at the SNB’s new tiering system The changes to the SNB’s tiering system, announced yesterday, are even more generous to domestic banks than they initially appear, and will help to ‘sugar the pill’ ahead of a probable rate cut. 20th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norway bucks the dovish trend for the last time This morning’s decision by the Norges Bank to raise its key policy rate by 25bps, to 1.50%, was is in stark contrast to the rate cuts delivered by the Fed and the ECB over the past week. Nonetheless... 19th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update More generous tiering system paves way for rate cut Given that the Swiss National Bank last changed its policy stance in January 2015, this morning’s decision to leave its policy rate on hold at -0.75% came as no surprise to us. But its tweak to make... 19th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Rising unemployment heaps pressure on the Riksbank The sharp rise in Swedish unemployment in August serves as further evidence that the Riksbank is unlikely to be able to tighten policy later this year, as it forecasts. 17th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update DNB mirrors the ECB as the SNB watches on Having mirrored the ECB’s 10bp interest rate cut this afternoon, we now expect the Danish Nationalbank to reduce its Certificates of Deposit rate again by the end of the year. Meanwhile, although the... 12th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank is still well behind the curve The decision by the Riksbank to leave its repo rate on hold at 0.25% this morning was never really in doubt. However, its hawkish tone and cautious approach to cutting its forecasts for the repo rate... 5th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Investors are right to price in looser policy in Sweden The fact that investors are now pricing in looser monetary policy in Sweden highlights the extent to which the Riksbank has fallen behind the curve. Anything less than a substantial dovish shift in... 4th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Further easing in the pipeline in Iceland Given the deep downturn in the tourism sector, this morning’s decision by the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) to cut interest rates by a further 25bps came as no surprise to us. We think that... 28th August 2019 · 3 mins read
