Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Run of positive Swedish data buys the Riksbank time The Swedish economy appears to have stabilised in recent months, but we doubt that this will mark the start of a sustained pick-up in growth. While the Riksbank will stay in wait-and-see mode for the... 29th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank on hold for foreseeable future This morning’s decision by the Norges Bank to leave its key policy rate on hold at 1.50% was widely expected. We suspect that the Bank will leave rates on hold until 2022 though, if anything, our... 23rd January 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Frankenshock continues to cast a shadow on the SNB Five years after the so-called Frankenshock, the SNB is near the end of the road for conventional monetary easing. Accordingly, the Bank may be forced to make another radical policy choice if there is... 13th January 2020 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update What to watch for in 2020 Our big calls for 2020 are that economic growth and inflation will generally be weaker than the consensus expects, and that rates cuts are on the cards in Switzerland and Sweden. 23rd December 2019 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank set to reverse course next year While today’s decision by the Riksbank to raise the repo rate back to zero was never really in doubt, the fact that two of the Deputy Governors opposed the move lends support to our non-consensus view... 19th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update CAD & NOK set to outperform in 2020 Despite a rise in oil prices over the past couple of months, the Canadian dollar and the Norwegian krone have underperformed most other G10 currencies. Nonetheless, we expect both to fare better next... 19th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB halfway through a sub-zero decade Today’s decision by the Swiss National Bank to leave its policy stance unchanged came as a surprise to nobody. Five years on since the Bank first cut interest rates into negative territory, there is... 12th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Central Bank of Iceland in “wait-and-see” mode After cutting rates by 150bps since April, the Central Bank of Iceland kept its deposit rate at its current record low of 3.00% today. We suspect that in the absence of a sharp and sustained fall in... 11th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Finnish PM resignation not a “game changer” While the resignation of the Finnish Prime Minister today is unlikely to lead to a collapse in government, but elections may well take place before 2023, when they are due. If so, the nationalist... 3rd December 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swiss & Swedish govt. bond yields likely to drop back We doubt that the global pick-up in government bond yields will resume anytime soon, so domestic monetary policy is likely to be the key driver of bonds in Switzerland and the Nordics. With that in... 25th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank preparing for life after physical cash While the Riksbank’s plans for an official digital currency are still in the early stages, we think it is more likely than not that it will launch the e-krona by the mid-2020s. Moreover, we suspect... 20th November 2019 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swishing in Stockholm We have just returned from two days of client meetings in Stockholm from which the key takeaway is that we are not alone in being puzzled by the Riksbank’s stance. Policymakers seem determined to... 14th November 2019 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Finland to slow in line with rest of euro-zone Economic growth in Finland outpaced the euro-zone average before the global financial crisis but has been broadly in line with it in recent years. We think that this trend will continue and that... 5th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank hike wouldn’t do much for embattled krona The Riksbank appears determined to raise interest rates into an economic slowdown. While higher policy rates may provide some support for the Swedish krona, we still think that it will continue to... 1st November 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Hawkish Riksbank to reverse course in 2020 Having left its repo rate on hold at -0.25% this morning, we do not doubt the Riksbank’s clear intent to raise it to zero in December. However, with economic growth set to slow in 2020, and underlying... 24th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Brighter outlook for Norwegian krone next year While we think that there is still a bit more scope for the Norwegian krone to fall against the euro, we expect the currency to bounce back over the next couple of years, as the country’s terms of... 23rd October 2019 · 3 mins read
