Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norwegian economy being clobbered on all fronts The combination of virus-related disruption and a crunch in cash flows for energy firms means that the Norwegian economy is more exposed than most at present. And with oil prices likely to increase... 1st April 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB may be forced to live with a stronger franc While the SNB clearly favours using FX interventions to weaken the franc at present, persistent concerns about the size of its balance sheet would make it reticent to step in on an ever-greater scale... 30th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Jobless rate to erase seven years of gains We think the unemployment rate in the euro-zone will surge to about 12% by the end of June, giving up seven years’ worth of gains in a matter of months. Much of this may prove temporary if the economy... 24th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update What to make of the moves in commodity currencies The slump in the prices of commodities has hit hard the currencies of the countries whose fortunes depend heavily on them. But if we are right and commodity prices eventually recover as the... 23rd March 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB does what it can with its little ammunition left While the Swiss National Bank left its key policy rate on hold at -0.75% this morning, it made all the right noises by making its exemptions to the banking sector from negative interest rates even... 19th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Border controls are creeping up the policy agenda While the widespread re-introduction of border controls in Europe does not seem likely at present, it is possible that more governments turn to them as part of a wider policy response against the... 13th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update How big a threat is COVID-19 to Swiss insurers? As it stands, we think that the direct impact of the coronavirus on the Swiss insurance industry is likely to be manageable. However, the indirect impact from lower-for-longer bond yields will only... 10th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Repo rate cut to be the Riksbank’s first port of call Against a backdrop of rising pressure on major central banks to loosen policy in response to coronavirus, we now forecast the Riksbank to cut its repo rate back into negative territory at its 28th... 9th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swiss GDP likely to contract in Q2 The stronger-than-expected increase in Swiss GDP growth in Q4 provides a higher base for annual growth rates at the start of this year than we had previously assumed. Nonetheless, following the surge... 3rd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Potential loss of sports income is no issue for the SNB The possibility of the Olympics and/or the European Football Championships being cancelled as a result of the coronavirus poses downside risks to headline Swiss GDP growth this year. Nonetheless, this... 27th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Rising risk to the Swiss economy from coronavirus The outsized importance of cross-border commuters to the Swiss economy means that it is particularly vulnerable to any disruption to flows of people within Europe as a result of the coronavirus... 26th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Is the SNB learning to live with a stronger franc? While we suspect that the SNB has intervened to slow the rise of the franc in recent weeks, it has not prevented it from reaching a multi-year high against the euro. At the margin, an increased... 18th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank happy to sit on the fence, for now This morning’s decision by the Riksbank to leave its repo rate on hold at zero percent was never in doubt. While policymakers appear happy to stay in wait-and-see mode for the time being, we suspect... 12th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update ECB loosening set to support Danish krone The step-up in interventions by Denmark’s Nationalbank (DNB) to strengthen the krone in January puts to bed the idea that the Bank is comfortable with allowing the krone to trade in a more symmetric... 6th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Easing cycle in Iceland has further to run This morning’s decision by the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) to resume its easing cycle came as no surprise to us following the recent fall in inflation. Given the potential for the coronavirus to... 5th February 2020 · 2 mins read
