Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB & Norges Bank cook up no change, two ways The fact that policymakers at the SNB and the Norges Bank left policy settings unchanged this morning came as no surprise. Both banks are likely to leave policy unchanged throughout our forecast... 24th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sweden sidestepping a second wave Sweden has so far avoided a second wave of virus cases and the prospect of it sticking to its light-touch approach, rather than tightening restrictions in line with much of Europe, means that the risk... 22nd September 2020 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank bides its time, but leaves rate cut on the table The Riksbank’s decision to leave the repo rate on hold at zero this morning was never in doubt, but it left the option of a rate cut firmly on the table, linking it explicitly to moves in inflation... 22nd September 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Nordics top the class with their virus responses While Sweden’s economy got off relatively lightly in H1 thanks to the light-touch lockdown, Norway and Finland saw even smaller falls in activity at a lower human cost. Nonetheless, the success of the... 26th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank set for a prolonged period at zero This morning’s decision by the Norges Bank to leave its key interest rates on hold at zero was never really in doubt. We still think it more likely than not that the Bank will leave rates on hold... 20th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norway experiencing a shallow “U” The pick-up in mainland Norwegian GDP in May was a tad underwhelming, with the economy’s recovery now seeming to follow a shallow “U” rather than the deep “V” seen in the euro-zone. Nonetheless, the... 8th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank beefs up monetary stimulus The Riksbank has put its money where its mouth is when it comes to expanding its balance sheet, but in our view all roads still lead to a return to negative interest rates, either in late-2020 or... 1st July 2020 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB & Norges Bank to maintain the status quo This morning’s decisions by the SNB and the Norges Bank to leave interest rates on hold at -0.75% and zero respectively were never really in doubt. Both banks are set to leave policy unchanged... 18th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update New (higher) forecast for Swedish GDP There are increasing signs that the Swedish economy has weathered the crisis better than we first feared. Accordingly, we now expect GDP to contract by ‘only’ 2.5% this year (previously -7.5%). 16th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sweden comparatively well placed, but not unscathed While Sweden’s economy has fared better than the worst-affected countries, as a result of its comparatively light-touch lockdown, it is still set for a year to forget. We expect the decline in GDP... 28th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update EC fiscal proposal provides the SNB some respite The prospect of a joint European fiscal response has helped to ease upward pressure on the Swiss franc and means that there is light at the end of the tunnel for the SNB following its recent bout of... 28th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Post-lockdown lessons from Denmark Economic activity in Denmark appears to have clawed back about one-third of its virus-related fall since the government started to ease restrictions in mid-April, with activity probably about 7.5%... 21st May 2020 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank sets a floor at zero This morning’s 25bp rate cut by the Norges Bank, to a fresh record low of zero, took the consensus by surprise, but was in line with our forecast. That said, the Bank gave a strong signal that it has... 7th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank signals rate cut in the pipeline This morning’s decision by the Riksbank to leave its repo rate and crisis-related policy settings unchanged did not come as a big surprise. Nonetheless, it kept the door open for a rate cut, and we... 28th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Sweden’s light-touch lockdown far from pain-free Despite imposing less draconian measures than elsewhere, the economic impact of Sweden’s ‘lockdown’ is not far short of that in France, for example. Accordingly, Sweden’s experience pours cold water... 24th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Carnage in the Swiss labour market The fact that almost one-third of the Swiss workforce has reportedly applied for short-time work is a sobering illustration of the scale of the virus-related economic disruption. While the headline... 7th April 2020 · 2 mins read
