Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Taking stock of our vaccine rollout assumptions Our working assumption is that the vaccine rollout proceeds fast enough for governments to start lifting restrictions in April and that the majority are lifted during May and June. This Update sets... 13th January 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update The Nordic currencies could rise further in 2021 We expect both the Swedish krona and the Norwegian krone to appreciate against the euro and the dollar in 2021. However, in contrast to 2020, we expect the NOK to outperform the SEK slightly this year... 7th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Looking towards the vaccine endgame While it’s still early days, the underwhelming start to vaccinations in mainland Europe lends support to our view that governments won’t lift most of the restrictions until May/June (see here), and... 7th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Assessing the prospects for the EU’s vaccine roll-out 22nd December 2020 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank plotting (gradual) path back to normality As was widely expected, the Norges Bank left its policy rate on hold at zero this morning. However, it brought forward the projected start of rate hikes and signalled that it will retighten... 17th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB to stick to course, despite ‘manipulator’ label This morning’s decision by the Swiss National Bank to keep its policy settings unchanged was pretty much a foregone conclusion. Looking ahead, the SNB will brush off being branded a ‘currency... 17th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Factoring in a vaccine to our forecasts Following the run of positive news on the vaccine front, we now expect Switzerland and the Nordic economies to regain pre-virus levels in late 2021. Nonetheless, policymakers will be in no rush to... 27th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank gets ahead of the curve The announcement this morning by the Riksbank that it has left the repo rate on hold at zero was never in doubt, and positive news on the vaccine front means that we no longer expect it to cut back... 26th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Six key questions about the Danish mink outbreak The news that mutated versions of SARS-CoV-2 have been transmitted from minks to humans in Denmark has raised fears that the goalposts for a vaccine may have already shifted. This Update answers six... 11th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank set for a prolonged period at zero As expected, the Norges Bank did not set off any fireworks this morning, and the decision to leave its key interest rate on hold at zero was never in doubt. The economy is likely to prove... 5th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Recoveries set to shift into reverse While Switzerland has not yet followed France and Germany in announcing a new national lockdown, we now expect GDP to contract in Q4, broadly in line with the euro-zone. Meanwhile, although the... 4th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update We doubt the SEK will remain a G10 top performer We think that the Swedish krona will appreciate a little further against the euro and the dollar in 2021, but doubt that it will remain one of the best-performing G10 currencies, as it has been this... 2nd November 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB focused on how, rather than if, ECB loosens again We think that Swiss policymakers would be prepared to match any small interest rate cut by the ECB, albeit reluctantly. However, if policymakers in the euro-zone opt to ease policy in other ways, as... 22nd October 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Nordics offer salutary tales for harder-hit economies The further slowdowns in monthly GDP growth in Norway and Sweden in August support our view that it will take a long time for output to recover to pre-crisis trend levels anywhere in Europe. 8th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Risk of US Treasury backlash unlikely to deter SNB Although the SNB meets the US Treasury’s criteria for a “currency manipulator”, we doubt this would deter it from intervening further in the foreign exchange market if required to keep the franc... 7th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Brighter outlook for the Norwegian krone next year Although the Norwegian krone has been the worst performing G10 currency so far in 2020, we expect it to make up some lost ground in 2021 even if it falls a bit more in the near term. 29th September 2020 · 3 mins read
