Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Should Sweden be worried about deflation? Sweden is less at risk from a prolonged and damaging bout of deflation than the euro-zone, despite the fact that CPI inflation is currently lower in the former. 5th February 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norway set for several years of below-trend growth The Norwegian economy will slow more than the consensus expects over the coming years as its two major tailwinds in recent years – booms in the housing and energy sectors – fade out. 13th January 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish Riksbank likely to soften its stance further The Swedish Riksbank’s decision to reduce interest rates is unlikely to have a major positive impact on the economy. We expect GDP to continue to grow at a lacklustre pace, suggesting that the... 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland’s debt write-down plan will support the recovery Iceland’s controversial plan for more debt relief for indebted households is, despite some risks, a positive for the economy. But the scope for similar measures in the euro-zone’s periphery is limited... 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Finland’s economy to stagnate in 2014 The latest economic data show that Finland’s economy is struggling to recover from the recent yearlong recession. With many more years of painful reform ahead, it is likely that GDP growth will... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norwegian interest rates on hold until at least mid-2015 The weakening Norwegian economy prompted the Norges Bank to push back its tightening cycle today. With the Bank revising down its economic forecasts closer to our own, we agree with its new projection... 5th December 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norway’s housing boom is ending Norway’s long housing boom is losing steam. Although a collapse in prices is unlikely, the slowdown in the housing market suggests that the economy will weaken more than the consensus expects. 5th November 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish and Norwegian rates on hold until 2015 As expected, both the Swedish Riksbank and Norway’s Norges Bank both held their policy ratesunchanged today. Given our below-consensus outlook for both economies, we do not expect eitherto hike rates... 24th October 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank unlikely to hike before end-2014 Although the recent rise in inflation prompted the Norges Bank to bring forward its projected hikingcycle, we think that a slowdown in the economy will prevent the Bank hiking before the end of 2014. 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update When will Denmark normalise monetary policy? Denmark’s year-long experiment with negative deposit rates is likely to come to an end next year. Butwe think that markets are wrong to expect a second rate hike before the end of 2014. 13th September 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank’s economic forecasts still look too optimistic The Swedish Riksbank continued to suggest that interest rate hikes are unlikely until the end of 2014. But we expect the economic recovery to be weaker than the Bank expects, implying that rates could... 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update What would a new government mean for Norway? The Conservative-led opposition is favourite to win the Norwegian election on the 9th September. But the party looks unlikely to tackle the economy’s twin addiction to energy exports and household... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland on long and winding road to recovery Iceland is well on the way to recovery. But legacy problems from its 2008 crisis will hang over the economy for some time yet, preventing GDP from regaining its pre-crisis high until 2015. 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Denmark to drag itself out of property slump The Danish property market, at the heart of the country’s long slump, is on the mend. This suggests that the economy is finally turning a corner, but the recovery in both house prices and the wider... 5th August 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Forward guidance – the experience of Sweden Some central banks are beginning to make greater use of “forward guidance” to signal that interest rates will remain low for the foreseeable future. The evidence from Sweden, where the Riksbank has... 18th July 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norwegian rate cut still likely despite FX depreciation We have long argued that the strength of the Norwegian krone would push the Norges Bank into further monetary easing. While the currency’s recent sell-off might ease pressure on the Bank somewhat, we... 10th July 2013 · 1 min read
