Nordic & Swiss Economics Update When will Iceland drop its remaining capital controls? While the Central Bank of Iceland’s forecasts imply that it intends to scale back its controls on foreign investment later this year, we think that it will end up leaving them unchanged until 2020. 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update The outlook for bonds in Switzerland and the Nordics The Nordic central banks are all moving towards tightening monetary policy, albeit at different speeds. We think that higher interest rates will come first in Sweden, pushing up government bond yields... 20th March 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank edging towards tighter policy Following the recent reduction in its inflation target, the Norges Bank now clearly expects to begin raising interest rates this year. However, we think that it will tighten monetary policy more... 15th March 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB to lag ECB in policy normalisation Despite sounding a slightly more positive tone on the economy, the Swiss National Bank today reiterated that the Swiss franc remained “highly valued” and that it still needed to keep interest rates at... 15th March 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Central Bank of Iceland on hold for now While the Central Bank of Iceland left policy unchanged today, it also acknowledged that inflation expectations are rising. We expect higher actual and expected inflation to prompt the Bank to raise... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Will Nordic and Swiss equities continue to struggle? After a tough start to 2018, we think that equities in the Nordic countries and Switzerland will continue to struggle over the next couple of years. But their performance will be far from uniform. 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update A month to forget for Swedish krona and Swiss shares While all of the Nordic currencies and the Swiss franc depreciated against the dollar in February, weak Swedish inflation data and dovish comments from the Riksbank meant that the drop in the krona... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank set to push back guidance on rate rises In light of weak inflation data earlier this week and the dovishness of today’s Riksbank minutes, we expect the Bank to signal at April’s meeting that it will raise interest rates later than its... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Is the Swiss franc really overvalued? Although the franc has strengthened in recent weeks, the big picture is that the currency is over 5% weaker than this time a year ago. Currency valuation measures paint a mixed picture but our view is... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update No surprises from cautious Riksbank Given that the Riksbank called time on its net asset purchases just one meeting ago, it was always unlikely that the Bank would make any major policy changes today. In order to test the water ahead of... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB unlikely to let franc’s rise be sustained The franc’s downward trend went into reverse last month and turbulence in global financial markets has since threatened to push it up further. In the event of a sustained rout in equity markets, the... 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Consensus underestimating scope for Icelandic rate rises As the recent rise in inflation has been due to temporary exchange rate effects, it was little surprise that the Central Bank of Iceland left policy unchanged today. But with further rises in... 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Global forces push exchange rates and bond yields up Following developments in other developed economies this year, Nordic and Swiss currencies have appreciated while equity prices and bond yields have risen. Norway’s currency has outperformed, largely... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Housing risks to deter Norges Bank from raising rates While today’s Norges Bank announcement implies that it still expects to raise interest rates this autumn, we think that below-target inflation and weakness in the housing market will cause the Bank to... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank’s early reinvestments unlikely to delay rate rise While the Riksbank’s early bond reinvestments will make policy slightly more expansionary in the short term, the minutes of December’s meeting suggest that the decision to bring forward reinvestments... 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Twenty-fourth time lucky for the Riksbank? After bringing its net asset purchases to a close last month, the Riksbank reiterated that it expects to raise interest rates in September this year. The Bank’s track record suggests that this... 4th January 2018 · 1 min read
