Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland’s central bank signals higher rates on the cards Although the Central Bank of Iceland left monetary policy unchanged today, it reiterated that it was prepared to take action if inflation expectations rise further. We think that this is likely and... 3rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Ousting of Swedish PM won’t upend plans for rate hikes Today’s ouster of Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Löfven might seem to justify yet another delay to the Riskbank’s policy normalisation plans. But the economy should continue to perform well and might... 25th September 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank tightening to end sooner than most expect The Norges Bank has announced its first interest rate hike in seven years, but we suspect that the tightening process will be over much sooner than policymakers or investors envisage. 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB dovish amid concerns about franc strength The Swiss National Bank stuck firmly to its ultra-accommodative policy stance today and sounded more downbeat about the outlook, revising down its medium-term inflation forecasts in light of the... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sweden’s political upheaval won’t alter fiscal outlook While Sweden looks set for a period of political uncertainty, the broad fiscal consensus among mainstream politicians suggests that, whoever takes power, the near-term economic outlook will not be... 11th September 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank to raise rates in December Despite the more dovish tone of today’s policy announcement, the Riksbank looks likely to raise interest rates in December. We think that the Bank will then tighten more quickly in 2019 and 2020 than... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland’s central bank on hold but rates to rise this year Although the Central Bank of Iceland left policy unchanged today, it expressed concern about rising inflation expectations ahead of wage negotiations later this year. So domestic inflationary... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Where is the Swiss franc headed? Even after its recent rise, we still think that the Swiss franc will weaken against the euro over the coming years as the Swiss National Bank lags the ECB in tightening monetary policy. But sustained... 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Political uncertainty won’t derail Swedish economy Following September’s general election, Sweden looks set for a period of political uncertainty that might dent economic activity. But this is likely to prove temporary and we doubt that it would... 21st August 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update September rate hike by Norges Bank looks nailed on After leaving policy unchanged today, the Norges Bank looks almost certain to begin raising interest rates at its next meeting in September. But even as the central bank tightens monetary policy over... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Will soft inflation delay Riksbank tightening? Non-energy inflation in Sweden has been unexpectedly weak in recent months, prompting investors to push back their expectations of the first rate rise into 2019. But there is evidence of rising cost... 8th August 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norwegian krone to weaken even as interest rates rise The Norges Bank will soon start to tighten monetary policy. But in contrast to the consensus view, we think that as interest rates rise over the next few years, the krone will depreciate against the... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Flatter yield curves not a cause for concern Government bond yield curves in the Nordics and Switzerland have flattened this year, but we doubt that this signals that recessions are imminent in any of these economies. 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Tighter monetary policy on the way in Sweden The Riksbank looks very likely to raise interest rates in December. We think that the Bank will then raise interest rates more quickly in 2019 and 2020 than investors expect, causing the krona to... 3rd July 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norway labour data bolster case for September rate hike Norway’s labour market recovery should continue to push up wage growth over the coming years. But with wage expectations still quite low, wage growth will probably rise only slowly, so the Norges Bank... 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Krone to weaken despite Norges Bank tightening Today’s policy announcement by the Norges Bank shows that it is on the brink of raising interest rates. But once it has started, it will tighten policy only very slowly. And because we forecast oil... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
