Nordic & Swiss Economics Update What could the SNB do to ease policy further? The more dovish than expected stance adopted by the ECB at today’s monetary policy meeting supports our view that the SNB will also keep rates lower for longer. And if the euro-zone economy... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank to keep rates on hold until beyond 2020 We have removed the single 25bp interest rate hike that we had pencilled in for Sweden this year, and forecast rates to remain unchanged at their current level into 2021. In fact, with risks to... 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Chance of Riksbank rate hikes falling The Riksbank seems to be in denial about the weakening of Sweden’s economy. While it reiterated today that it expects to raise interest rates in the second half of this year, with the economy... 13th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Safe-haven flows to support the Swiss franc this year While the Swiss franc has not benefitted much from recent upheaval in markets, including yesterday’s sell-off in US equities, it has been very stable. We expect this to remain the case in 2019, as... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Danish rates to stay on hold despite krone weakness The Danish krone is now close to the centre of the central bank’s exchange rate band – a level at which it has in the past unilaterally raised interest rates. However, we think it is likely to leave... 7th February 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Interest rates hikes in Iceland looking less likely The Central Bank of Iceland had hinted only a few weeks ago that interest rate hikes were likely at the start of this year, but the recent economic data have been weak enough for it to hold fire today... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norway housing market stabilising, Sweden slowing Norway’s housing market struggled last year but looks set to do better in 2019. By contrast, construction in Sweden is likely to contract this year, causing the economy to slow sharply. 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank too optimistic on GDP growth Following today’s monetary policy announcement, the Norges Bank is almost certain to raise interest rates in March. But we think that it is still too optimistic about prospects for the economy this... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank’s surprise hike unlikely to be a one-off The Riksbank’s surprise decision to hike interest rates today supported our long-held call that it would tighten policy more aggressively than investors anticipate. But there is a clear risk that a... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank to end tightening cycle next year In today’s statement, the Norges Bank clearly signalled that an interest rate hike in March is a near certainty. But beyond that, we think that lower oil prices will prompt the Bank to end its... 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB turns even more dovish The Swiss National Bank reiterated its commitment to its ultra-accommodative policy stance today and revised down its forecasts for inflation and GDP. As we think inflation will be even lower than... 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Central Bank of Iceland tightening cycle not over yet The Central Bank of Iceland left interest rates unchanged today, but hinted strongly that hikes are on the horizon. We think that it will raise interest rates twice next year, leaving the deposit rate... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swiss-EU relations freeze bodes ill for Swiss economy Sunday’s referendum on whether to place Swiss law above international law threatens to undermine treaty negotiations currently taking place between Switzerland and the EU. Failure to strike a deal on... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norway’s economy to slow in 2019 Norway’s economic slowdown in Q3 reflected temporary factors. But growth still looks set to weaken next year as oil prices fall. So we expect the krone to weaken and the equity market to underperform. 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Central Bank of Iceland hikes and signals more to come Higher inflation and inflation expectations have prompted the Central Bank of Iceland to raise interest rates today, sooner than we had anticipated. And as upcoming wage negotiations look likely to... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank set to tighten faster than investors expect While the minutes to the Riksbank’s October meeting all but confirmed that interest rates will start to rise in the coming months, a December hike is not a done deal. But regardless of whether the... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
