Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Nationalbank to match ECB rate cut, eventually The small interest rate cut that we now forecast by the ECB in December is unlikely to be matched immediately by Denmark’s Nationalbank (DNB). But given that upward pressure on the krone is now likely... 18th June 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB on hold for now, but next move to be down As expected, Swiss policymakers maintained their expansionary monetary policy at their June policy meeting. But the recent shift to a looser bias in the US and the euro-zone only strengthens our view... 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Just how weak is the Swedish krona? Swedish policymakers are increasingly vocal about their concerns that the sharp sell-off in the krona this year has gone too far. But we find little evidence to support the idea that the currency has... 4th June 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Fragmented Danish politics won’t change fiscal stance Denmark’s forthcoming election has revealed a number of cracks within traditional party groupings which could complicate the coalition-forming process. But regardless of which parties end up in... 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Further rate cuts in Iceland unlikely The Central Bank of Iceland’s decision to cut interest rates by 50bp to 4.00% came as a surprise. While it was prompted by a deterioration in the economic outlook, inflation expectations remain high... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update New (lower) forecasts for the Swedish krona Following the recent flare-up in global trade tensions and dovish shift in the Riksbank’s stance, we have revised down our already below-consensus end-2019 forecast for the krona against the euro from... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Burden of negative rates won’t prevent further easing Negative interest rates in Denmark, Switzerland, and Sweden impose costs on their respective banking sectors, but the overall burdens are very small – well below 0.1% of bank assets in all cases... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank takes a chance on QT For now, the Riksbank is in the peculiar position of trying to ease and tighten policy at the same time. But with economic growth and core inflation set to remain subdued, we expect policy tightening... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank still too optimistic about repo rate hikes The dovish shift in the Riksbank’s policy stance is a step in the right direction. But with economic growth and core inflation set to remain subdued over the coming years, we still think that... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Higher oil prices not a game changer for Norway We expect that higher oil prices will result in the Norges Bank raising interest rates twice this year and that the krone will outperform its Nordic peers. However, if we are proved correct in our... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Finland set for a grand coalition, eventually The success of the nationalist Finns Party in yesterday’s parliamentary election is further evidence of the increasing fragmentation in European politics, while the tight result suggests that the... 15th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update How would the DNB respond to more ECB QE? If the past is anything to go by, a fresh round of ECB QE would lead to upward pressure on the Danish krone. We think Denmark’s Nationalbank would react with a combination of FX intervention and rate... 26th March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Monetary policy likely to prevent weaker NOK We are now more hawkish than the consensus about the outlook for monetary policy in Norway this year. But we don’t expect the krone to keep strengthening, as we forecast that oil prices will fall. 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Interest rate hikes in Iceland appear even less likely As we expected, weak economic data and a recent pick-up in the króna contributed to the Central Bank of Iceland leaving interest rates on hold today. While it maintained a hawkish bias in its... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update What could the SNB do to ease policy further? The more dovish than expected stance adopted by the ECB at today’s monetary policy meeting supports our view that the SNB will also keep rates lower for longer. And if the euro-zone economy... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank to keep rates on hold until beyond 2020 We have removed the single 25bp interest rate hike that we had pencilled in for Sweden this year, and forecast rates to remain unchanged at their current level into 2021. In fact, with risks to... 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
