Global Markets Update SEK & NOK likely to continue testing all-time lows While the Swedish krona and the Norwegian krone are now near the record lows they reached against the euro in 2008-09, we think that monetary policy and rising risk aversion will push them down... 21st August 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update New CBI Governor unlikely to rock the boat While the imminent change in leadership at the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) is unlikely to affect its current easing bias, the new Governor will have a bigger role in shaping policy than his... 19th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norway reaches the end of its tightening cycle While this morning’s decision by the Norges Bank to leave its key policy rate unchanged at 1.25% was in line with expectations, the dovish shift in its tone suggests that the last bastion of... 15th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank to cut interest rates to -0.50% by year-end Having seen investors move in line with our previously uber-dovish view on Swedish interest rates in recent months, we now expect the Riksbank to cut the repo rate to -0.50% by the end of the year. 14th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB will not fear being branded a ‘manipulator’ While much of the market’s focus has been on China, Switzerland appears set to become the first country to meet all three of the US Treasury’s criteria of being a ‘currency manipulator’ later this... 7th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Rising chance of a recession in Sweden The decline in Swedish GDP in Q2 will make it harder for the Riksbank to sit on the fence. With the economy unlikely to find much support in H2, the rising prospect of a recession lends further... 30th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swiss franc likely to continue rallying against the euro The Swiss franc has been the best performing G10 currency over the past three months, despite falling back a bit after the ECB meeting on Thursday. We think that monetary policy as well as safe-haven... 26th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Dovish ECB paves way for lower rates elsewhere The apparent confirmation this afternoon that the ECB is inching towards loosening policy lends further support to our view that more rate cuts are on the cards in Denmark and Switzerland too. 25th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB to cut rates in Q1 2020 While recent market attention has been on the ECB and Fed, the rise in the Swiss franc has ratcheted up the pressure on the SNB. As a result, investors have come around to our view that the Bank will... 23rd July 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Domestic weakness to weigh on the Swedish krona It is becoming harder for the Riksbank to brush aside mounting signs of weakness in domestic demand. We expect it to turn more dovish, and the krona to weaken, over the second half of the year. 22nd July 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank bucks the dovish trend The decision by the Riksbank to leave its repo rate on hold at -0.25% this morning came as no surprise, but the fact that it left its (in our view) optimistic forecast for interest rates unchanged... 3rd July 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Why ‘yield curve control’ wouldn’t work for the SNB Swiss pension funds and life insurers have been among the losers from negative interest rates, but the SNB is unlikely to follow the Bank of Japan’s example of targeting long-term bond yields to limit... 2nd July 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Central Bank of Iceland to cut further this year Following this morning’s decision by the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) to cut its key interest rate by 25bps, we now think that further cuts are in the pipeline. However, to the extent that a rumoured... 26th June 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swiss-EU spat no threat to the franc’s safe haven status While the escalating spat between Switzerland and the EU has drawn obvious parallels with Brexit, the implications for Switzerland are likely to be quite modest. And while Brexit has taken a toll on... 26th June 2019 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank leaves door open for another rate hike This morning’s decision by the Norges Bank to raise its policy rate from 1.00% to 1.25% came as no surprise. But while policymakers left the door open for further rates hikes in 2019, we think there... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank unlikely to cut rates further, for now Investors have slashed their expectations for interest rate hikes in Sweden over the coming years and are now broadly in line with our previously well below consensus view. But while we now forecast... 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
