Japan Economics Focus Is the leading indicator a reliable signal of recession in Japan? Many commentators are starting to raise concerns about the index of leading indicators in Japan. At face value the latest reading is signalling a recession by the second half of the year, or at least... 18th April 2007 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Markets are complacent about upside risks to Japanese rates Most commentators have been quick to dismiss the significance of today’s increase in Japanese interest rates, taking their cue from the apparently dovish statement accompanying the announcement... 21st February 2007 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Wages pick-up to drive Japan’s inflation and interest rates higher Japanese wage inflation has so far remained subdued despite the downward trend in unemploymentn since 2003. This probably reflects consumer uncertainty over the outlook for the economy, with employees... 24th January 2007 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Bank of Japan makes the case for the next rate hike This Focus assesses the implications of the Bank of Japan’s twice-yearly growth and inflation forecasts, published today in its “Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices”. In our view these provide... 31st October 2006 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Tankan supports case for another hike in Japanese interest rates Today’s strong Tankan survey of business conditions paves the way for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to raise interest rates again shortly. Although most analysis starts and finishes with the headline index... 2nd October 2006 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Japan after Koizumi The imminent retirement of Prime Minister Koizumi is likely to raise concerns that “reform fatigue” will start to undermine the Japanese economy and markets. In this Focus we assess the risks to... 13th September 2006 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Is the Japanese consumer flagging? Recent monthly indicators from the consumer sector have been surprisingly weak. This contrasts with the strength of household spending in the GDP data over the last year or so, and raises concerns... 30th August 2006 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus What does the inflation outlook imply for Japanese rates? The markets appear increasingly complacent over the outlook for Japanese interest rates. In part this reflects three common misunderstandings about the inflation data: the impact of base year... 22nd August 2006 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Tankan survey paves the way for rise in Japanese interest rates Today’s strong Tankan survey of business confidence in the second quarter paves the way for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to raise interest rates, most likely at its next meeting on July 14th. Although most... 3rd July 2006 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Domestic demand set to drive Japan’s growth Net exports have played an important role in supporting Japan’s economic recovery, contributing around 30% of the increase in GDP since 2002. This has raised concerns over the vulnerability of the... 15th March 2006 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Japan to escape deflation this year Both the Bank of Japan and the consensus of outside forecasters expect deflation to persist in Japan well into 2006. In contrast, we expect inflation to return this year. With next-to-nothing in terms... 15th May 2005 · 1 min read
