Japan Economics Focus Does the contraction in bank credit signal a double-dip? The recent contraction of bank lending is often cited as a risk to the economic recovery in Japan and to the prospects for investment in particular. However, the declines in bank lending are probably... 9th March 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Is the recovery in the labour market for real? Despite the scepticism of many, the recent declines in the unemployment rate in Japan are consistent with other evidence on the state of the labour market and the strong performance of the economy... 3rd March 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Investment to drive the next stage of the recovery The huge amount of spare capacity left by the recession, and other headwinds, means that any pick-up in investment spending in Japan is unlikely to be spectacular. But this does not mean that... 10th February 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus A fresh look at the lessons from Japan The financial markets seem confident that the West can avoid the prolonged period of economic stagnation and price deflation that took hold of Japan in the 1990s. Looking back again at the Japanese... 22nd December 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Two cheers for the DPJ Confirmation of a decisive Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) victory in Sunday’s general election in Japan should provide a further near-term boost to the Nikkei and possibly the yen too, but this... 27th August 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Is trouble lurking within Japan’s financial system? The Japanese financial system remains in relatively good shape. Despite the erosion of bank capital due to sliding stock markets, a number of factors suggest that there are no major risks to the... 6th November 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Japan heading for deflation again Inflation fears are rapidly being replaced by the very real chance of deflation in all the major economies. Indeed, we now expect Japanese inflation to turn negative again next year, averaging minus 0... 28th October 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus What’s really happening to Japanese wages? A closer look at different measures of wages growth in Japan shows that, contrary to most analysis, the economic recovery in recent years has not been a “wageless” phenomenon. Even continued modest... 23rd October 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Construction rebound to help Japan steer well clear of recession The recovery in the construction sector should prevent an outright fall in Japanese GDP in the second quarter and contribute around 0.7 percentage points to growth in the year as whole. The economy is... 22nd July 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Japanese rates on hold until August, but risks still on the upside The weakness of the latest CPI and activity data, combined with cautious growth and inflation forecasts from the Bank of Japan, has prompted us to tweak our rate forecasts down slightly. We now expect... 27th April 2007 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Is the leading indicator a reliable signal of recession in Japan? Many commentators are starting to raise concerns about the index of leading indicators in Japan. At face value the latest reading is signalling a recession by the second half of the year, or at least... 18th April 2007 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Markets are complacent about upside risks to Japanese rates Most commentators have been quick to dismiss the significance of today’s increase in Japanese interest rates, taking their cue from the apparently dovish statement accompanying the announcement... 21st February 2007 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Wages pick-up to drive Japan’s inflation and interest rates higher Japanese wage inflation has so far remained subdued despite the downward trend in unemploymentn since 2003. This probably reflects consumer uncertainty over the outlook for the economy, with employees... 24th January 2007 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Bank of Japan makes the case for the next rate hike This Focus assesses the implications of the Bank of Japan’s twice-yearly growth and inflation forecasts, published today in its “Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices”. In our view these provide... 31st October 2006 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Tankan supports case for another hike in Japanese interest rates Today’s strong Tankan survey of business conditions paves the way for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to raise interest rates again shortly. Although most analysis starts and finishes with the headline index... 2nd October 2006 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Japan after Koizumi The imminent retirement of Prime Minister Koizumi is likely to raise concerns that “reform fatigue” will start to undermine the Japanese economy and markets. In this Focus we assess the risks to... 13th September 2006 · 1 min read
