Japan Economics Focus How would a euro-zone break-up affect Japan? If the euro-zone suffers from some form of break-up, as we expect, Japan could feel the effects through three channels: its trade links with the region, the exposure of its banking system and the... 17th July 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus What more can the Bank of Japan do? Many commentators appear to believe that Japan’s economy could recover from deflation and grow more strongly if only the Bank of Japan were willing to step up its asset purchases. Some also argue that... 23rd April 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Was Japan’s 2011 trade deficit a one-off? In 2011, Japan recorded its first full-year trade deficit since 1980. The three main factors responsible were the Great East Japan Earthquake, the slowdown in global demand and the increase in... 13th March 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Will Japan be the next domino to fall? Japan’s staggering level of public debt makes Greek and Italian liabilities look like pocket change. Its financial liabilities over the next few years are many multiples of its euro-zone peers and its... 13th December 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus The earthquake, electricity and the economy Some of the recent economic data have supported hopes of V-shaped rebound in Japan after the March earthquake. However, power shortages will still hold back the recovery, especially in Q3 when... 24th June 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Does inflation offer a way out of the debt crisis? Deliberately embracing higher inflation as a way out of the sovereign debt crisis could have disastrous consequences. Instead, for most advanced countries, wherever it is feasible, a combination of... 14th June 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Does the contraction in bank credit signal a double-dip? The recent contraction of bank lending is often cited as a risk to the economic recovery in Japan and to the prospects for investment in particular. However, the declines in bank lending are probably... 9th March 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Is the recovery in the labour market for real? Despite the scepticism of many, the recent declines in the unemployment rate in Japan are consistent with other evidence on the state of the labour market and the strong performance of the economy... 3rd March 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Investment to drive the next stage of the recovery The huge amount of spare capacity left by the recession, and other headwinds, means that any pick-up in investment spending in Japan is unlikely to be spectacular. But this does not mean that... 10th February 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus A fresh look at the lessons from Japan The financial markets seem confident that the West can avoid the prolonged period of economic stagnation and price deflation that took hold of Japan in the 1990s. Looking back again at the Japanese... 22nd December 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Two cheers for the DPJ Confirmation of a decisive Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) victory in Sunday’s general election in Japan should provide a further near-term boost to the Nikkei and possibly the yen too, but this... 27th August 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Is trouble lurking within Japan’s financial system? The Japanese financial system remains in relatively good shape. Despite the erosion of bank capital due to sliding stock markets, a number of factors suggest that there are no major risks to the... 6th November 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Japan heading for deflation again Inflation fears are rapidly being replaced by the very real chance of deflation in all the major economies. Indeed, we now expect Japanese inflation to turn negative again next year, averaging minus 0... 28th October 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus What’s really happening to Japanese wages? A closer look at different measures of wages growth in Japan shows that, contrary to most analysis, the economic recovery in recent years has not been a “wageless” phenomenon. Even continued modest... 23rd October 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Construction rebound to help Japan steer well clear of recession The recovery in the construction sector should prevent an outright fall in Japanese GDP in the second quarter and contribute around 0.7 percentage points to growth in the year as whole. The economy is... 22nd July 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Japanese rates on hold until August, but risks still on the upside The weakness of the latest CPI and activity data, combined with cautious growth and inflation forecasts from the Bank of Japan, has prompted us to tweak our rate forecasts down slightly. We now expect... 27th April 2007 · 1 min read
