Japan Economics Focus “Abenomics” needs a fresh boost Japan’s economic recovery was dealt a severe blow by last year’s sales tax hike, and we think that the immediate outlook for growth is more gloomy than most believe. With inflation well below the 2%... 31st March 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus What should Mr Abe do to kick-start growth? If the right policies were followed, we estimate that Japan’s potential growth rate could rise by around one percentage point. Measures to slow the shrinkage of the labour force and to reduce the... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Does Japan need to worry about “Hollowing Out”? Rather than harming the domestic manufacturing sector, outward investment by Japanese firms has boosted domestic activity and exports. Accordingly, the growth of offshore investment should not be... 10th November 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Can Japan’s population be stabilised at 100 million? Japan’s shrinking working-age population is a constant drag on economic growth. Unfortunately, policy measures that might help to stabilise the population would have substantial fiscal costs, which... 3rd September 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus How big are the risks from a deteriorating current account? Japan’s current account surplus has fallen sharply in recent years, as the trade balance has moved deeply into the red. The current account balance is more likely to rebound into surplus than slip... 22nd July 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Is “Abenomics” working? Japan’s economic recovery should be able to weather last month’s consumption tax hike, helped by improvements in investment and in net exports. But the bigger picture is that years of fiscal... 23rd May 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Is Japan’s private sector ready to releverage? A key aim of the BoJ’s QQE programme is to lower real interest rates in a bid to encourage firms and households to borrow and spend more and thereby eliminate the spare capacity that underpins... 16th May 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Is QQE working? Almost one year after the launch of Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE) by the Bank of Japan, the policy is working as well as could reasonably be expected. However, despite initial signs of... 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Is inflation the only answer for Japan? The public debt problem in Japan has of course been brewing for many years without boiling over into a full-blown crisis. However, adverse demographics could soon cause the government’s finances to... 4th November 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Will “Abenomics” transform Japan? The election of a new government under Prime Minister Abe has certainly transformed market sentiment towards Japan over the past six months. However, taking a closer look at each of the components of... 15th May 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus How would a euro-zone break-up affect Japan? If the euro-zone suffers from some form of break-up, as we expect, Japan could feel the effects through three channels: its trade links with the region, the exposure of its banking system and the... 17th July 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus What more can the Bank of Japan do? Many commentators appear to believe that Japan’s economy could recover from deflation and grow more strongly if only the Bank of Japan were willing to step up its asset purchases. Some also argue that... 23rd April 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Was Japan’s 2011 trade deficit a one-off? In 2011, Japan recorded its first full-year trade deficit since 1980. The three main factors responsible were the Great East Japan Earthquake, the slowdown in global demand and the increase in... 13th March 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Will Japan be the next domino to fall? Japan’s staggering level of public debt makes Greek and Italian liabilities look like pocket change. Its financial liabilities over the next few years are many multiples of its euro-zone peers and its... 13th December 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus The earthquake, electricity and the economy Some of the recent economic data have supported hopes of V-shaped rebound in Japan after the March earthquake. However, power shortages will still hold back the recovery, especially in Q3 when... 24th June 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Does inflation offer a way out of the debt crisis? Deliberately embracing higher inflation as a way out of the sovereign debt crisis could have disastrous consequences. Instead, for most advanced countries, wherever it is feasible, a combination of... 14th June 2011 · 1 min read
