Japan Economics Focus Is another bubble inflating in Japan’s housing market? There has been some recent talk of froth returning to Japan’s housing market but prices, other than for condominiums, are not rising at a rapid rate. With debt levels also stable, there are no signs... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Will underlying inflation continue to rise? We believe that the recent strength in the Bank of Japan’s new core inflation measure reflects the lagged pass-through to prices of the weaker yen rather than a pick-up in domestic price pressures... 23rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus When will the BoJ have to start tapering its JGB purchases? We estimate that QQE can continue for at least another five years even if the Bank of Japan steps up the annual pace of expansion of the monetary base to ¥90 trillion in October. As such, the fate of... 21st September 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Will population ageing help or derail efforts to boost inflation? Other things being equal, population ageing should boost price pressures. But that hasn’t happened in Japan because there has been an offsetting increase in the share of adults willing to work... 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Will Japan’s budget deficit continue to shrink? Even if the government goes ahead with the sales tax that is currently scheduled for 2017, we think it will struggle to reduce the budget deficit much further. Rather than more fiscal reforms, the... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus What could policymakers do next if QQE doesn’t work? The Bank of Japan’s 2% inflation target remains out of sight despite the benefits of a much weaker exchange rate. With the potential to expand QQE in its current form limited, new approaches are... 16th April 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus “Abenomics” needs a fresh boost Japan’s economic recovery was dealt a severe blow by last year’s sales tax hike, and we think that the immediate outlook for growth is more gloomy than most believe. With inflation well below the 2%... 31st March 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus What should Mr Abe do to kick-start growth? If the right policies were followed, we estimate that Japan’s potential growth rate could rise by around one percentage point. Measures to slow the shrinkage of the labour force and to reduce the... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Does Japan need to worry about “Hollowing Out”? Rather than harming the domestic manufacturing sector, outward investment by Japanese firms has boosted domestic activity and exports. Accordingly, the growth of offshore investment should not be... 10th November 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Can Japan’s population be stabilised at 100 million? Japan’s shrinking working-age population is a constant drag on economic growth. Unfortunately, policy measures that might help to stabilise the population would have substantial fiscal costs, which... 3rd September 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus How big are the risks from a deteriorating current account? Japan’s current account surplus has fallen sharply in recent years, as the trade balance has moved deeply into the red. The current account balance is more likely to rebound into surplus than slip... 22nd July 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Is “Abenomics” working? Japan’s economic recovery should be able to weather last month’s consumption tax hike, helped by improvements in investment and in net exports. But the bigger picture is that years of fiscal... 23rd May 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Is Japan’s private sector ready to releverage? A key aim of the BoJ’s QQE programme is to lower real interest rates in a bid to encourage firms and households to borrow and spend more and thereby eliminate the spare capacity that underpins... 16th May 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Is QQE working? Almost one year after the launch of Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE) by the Bank of Japan, the policy is working as well as could reasonably be expected. However, despite initial signs of... 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Is inflation the only answer for Japan? The public debt problem in Japan has of course been brewing for many years without boiling over into a full-blown crisis. However, adverse demographics could soon cause the government’s finances to... 4th November 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Will “Abenomics” transform Japan? The election of a new government under Prime Minister Abe has certainly transformed market sentiment towards Japan over the past six months. However, taking a closer look at each of the components of... 15th May 2013 · 1 min read
