Japan Economics Focus How will policymakers respond to the next downturn? If the next downturn is a mild, cyclical one we would expect the Bank of Japan to cut its short-term policy rate but leave its 10-year yield target unchanged. Fiscal stimulus would probably have to do... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Will productivity growth rebound? Forecasting shifts in productivity is notoriously hard but past experience suggests that the recent slowdown in productivity growth in Japan should reverse over the coming decade. Nonetheless, with... 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Is the Bank of Japan finally winning? On some measures, Japan has been the strongest performing large developed economy over recent years. Growth has been unusually fast, unemployment is at historic lows and wage growth at two-decade... 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Will the BoJ abandon its 2% inflation target? Five years after Governor Kuroda embarked on aggressive policy easing, core inflation in Japan is still barely positive and the Bank of Japan seems to have run out of ideas on how to push it higher... 27th March 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus How much longer can the labour force grow? Perhaps the most remarkable achievement of Abenomics has been the continued increase in employment despite the contraction in the working age population. It is possible that Japan will be able to... 8th January 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Will the Bank of Japan follow the Fed and the ECB? A long period of sustained economic growth has helped drive unemployment in Japan to its lowest level in nearly a quarter of a century. Nonetheless, inflation and wage growth are both barely positive... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Election unlikely to revive Abenomics Victory for Prime Minister Abe in this month’s election would keep Japan on the same track it has been on since 2012, pursuing fiscal tightening, loose monetary policy and tentative structural reform... 10th October 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Will wage growth strengthen again? We expect the expansion in the labour force to slow in coming years which suggests that wage growth should soon start picking up again. However, the shift to flexible employment forms, globalisation... 6th June 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Is the Bank of Japan’s work done? Japan’s economy has been performing well recently and we expect growth to exceed most estimates of its sustainable rate this year. But inflation remains low and, with wages still barely rising, there... 15th May 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Will Japan benefit from higher inflation? Deflation has not done as much damage to Japan’s economy as is often thought and, correspondingly, a return to inflation is unlikely to deliver major benefits for now. However, we remain convinced... 10th April 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Will the Bank of Japan have to start tightening soon? Japan’s economy has performed well recently and inflation is set to rise sharply soon. But the spike in inflation won’t last and, with inflation expectations no higher now than when the Bank of Japan... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Has the Bank of Japan finished easing? With the recent improvement in the inflation outlook, the Bank of Japan is unlikely to ease further in 2017 but any speculation about policy tightening will prove premature. In fact, the Bank’s pledge... 23rd January 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Will business investment remain sluggish? Investment by Japanese firms has been disappointingly weak recently. Capacity utilisation is high and firms are in a strong financial position to step up spending, but we nonetheless expect the recent... 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Are negative interest rates working? Negative interest rates have succeeded in lowering bond yields and bank lending rates in Japan without undermining lenders’ willingness to provide credit. However, credit growth has nonetheless... 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Has Abenomics failed? Structural reforms since the launch of Abenomics have been insufficient to improve the medium-term outlook for Japan’s economy. Meanwhile, monetary policy is running into diminishing returns. As a... 27th June 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Is the grass greener in Tokyo? We expect Tokyo’s economy to outperform the rest of Japan in coming years, largely because demographic prospects in the capital are brighter. One consequence is that house prices in Tokyo should... 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
