Global Markets Outlook A renewed struggle in store for risky assets The boost to risky assets from QE3 may already be over. The prices of equities and commodities have generally fallen since mid-September. And while the ECB brought the euro-zone back from the brink in... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Second half to be as tough as the first We doubt a third round of quantitative easing from the Fed would whet investors’ appetite for risk. After all, the US profit cycle may be turning a corner, the global economy is slowing and the euro... 26th July 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Search for safe havens set to resume We think tougher times lie ahead for risky assets. Enthusiasm for equities is likely to be curbed by a turn in the US profit cycle, an absence of additional unconventional monetary stimulus from the... 26th April 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Market implications of an EMU break-up Risky asset markets have generally made a bright start to 2012. But our central scenario envisages a break-up of EMU this year initially involving Greece’s departure, an outcome that would presumably... 24th January 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Too little, too late We do not expect the recent respite for risky assets to last. The outlook for the advanced economies is bleak and the growth rate of corporate earnings is set to slow. Investors’ enthusiasm for risk... 29th October 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Caveat creditor The global financial crisis that began with the banks was only ever temporarily resolved by shifting risks to governments and has now resurfaced in sovereign credit markets. The necessary fiscal... 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook The end of QE2 – expect the unexpected As growth slows and inflation subsides, expectations of higher interest rates in the major developed economies should be scaled back significantly. The end of QE2 in the US should neither rattle... 20th April 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Choppier waters ahead As growth slows out and fears about inflation fade, expectations of higher interest rates in the major developed economies should be scaled back significantly. In the second half of 2011 we expect US... 2nd February 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Will QE2 keep the markets afloat? US Treasury yields should remain anchored even if the scale of additional quantitative easing (QE) disappoints. We are sceptical, however, that the rally in the US equity market will last much longer... 2nd November 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Don't write off the dollar (Q3 2010) Global growth will probably not be as bad as many fear, while monetary policy should remain extremely accommodative in all the major developed economies for at least another year and a half. The... 28th July 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Recovery still on shaky ground (Q2 2010) The rally in many risky asset markets is mature and valuations are no longer attractive from a historical perspective. The recovery in the major developed economies is also likely to peter out soon... 4th May 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook A tough year ahead (Q1 2010) The environment will be challenging for most asset classes in 2010. Economic growth is set to slow and unconventional policy stimulus is being slowly withdrawn. Valuations are looking stretched in... 26th January 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Where did it all go right? (Q4 2009) Asset markets have continued to perform strongly across the board, underpinned by exceptionally loose monetary policy and signs of economic growth. The favourable backdrop should persist over the next... 27th October 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook The end of the beginning (Q3 2009) Investors already appear to have lost their appetite for risk. That may not last if incoming data over the summer show that the global recession is continuing to abate. Nonetheless, the weakness of... 15th July 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Markets could soon lose their appetite for risk again Risk appetite has begun to return, but the economic and financial backdrop remains unusually uncertain. A renewed deterioration in the economic data, disappointing corporate earnings or fresh shocks... 9th April 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Too early to call the turn in the equity market With the global economic downturn still gathering pace, it is far too soon to start positioning for a recovery. 15th January 2009 · 1 min read
