Global Markets Outlook Will the Fed rock the boat? We expect risky assets to fare well in 2017/18, even as the yields of US Treasury bonds continue toclimb in response to tighter-than-expected Fed policy. We think the stock market in the US will only... 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Brushing off Brexit While negotiations over the UK’s exit from the EU or a further fall in the Chinese renminbi could rock global markets in the months ahead, we suspect that an abrupt reassessment of the outlook for US... 26th July 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Will the Fed spoil the party? Our view is that monetary policy will be tightened by more than investors assume in the US, but typically be at least as loose as they envisage elsewhere. We therefore expect to see a significant rise... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Has the tide turned? We do not think that the global economy is performing as badly as many believe. Indeed, our expectation is that growth in China this year is more likely to edge higher than collapse. With this in mind... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Brighter times may lie ahead for emerging market assets We think the future for most emerging markets is brighter than generally believed. Their poor performance has been a function of close ties with troubled China, heavy reliance on exports of... 21st October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Grexit or not – euro-zone equities should shine We expect the US FOMC to tighten policy faster and further than most envisage and think this will drive both the dollar and US Treasury yields higher. By contrast, we expect the yields of governments... 21st July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Will tighter Fed policy rattle the markets? We forecast that US Treasury yields will increase further as the FOMC raises the federal funds rate more rapidly than policymakers, investors and the consensus of economists envisage. By contrast, we... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Are very low bond yields here to stay? We forecast US Treasury yields to rise only gradually amid the onset of tighter Fed policy, while the yields of governments bonds in many other developed economies should remain very low against the... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Bubble in US Treasuries should deflate soon If recent history is any guide, Fed tightening is unlikely to derail stock markets to the extent that many fear. Our view is that while US equities will struggle to make further headway, they will... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook How will the markets respond to Fed tightening? The received wisdom is that Fed tightening is bad news for many assets. But in the last three cycles, this was not always the case. Next time around, our view is that the US stock market will shrug... 22nd July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Steady as she goes We forecast a fairly small rise in the 10-year US government bond yield by end-2015 despite a shift in Fed policy. We also think the BoE will raise rates later and more slowly than the US central bank... 1st May 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Beyond the taper As the Fed gradually scales back its unconventional monetary stimulus, we expect the dollar to rise against the other major developed currencies. We also expect government bond yields to increase... 24th January 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Which assets will prove resilient to Fed tapering? The Fed now looks as if it will start to scale back its asset purchases next spring, although the tone of the FOMC's late-October statement suggests that the process might even begin earlier. As the... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Is the worst now over for "risky" assets? A slow but steady removal of monetary stimulus in the US over the next few years is likely to have important implications for a wide variety of financial market instruments. It should buoy the dollar... 1st August 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook How much should markets fear a scaling back of QE3? We continue to assume that the crisis in the euro-zone will flare up during the second half of this year. And we also think the Fed will scale back its asset purchases during this period, before... 26th April 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook A see-saw year ahead for risky assets We now think risky assets will generally fare quite well in the first half of 2013, as tension in the euro-zone continues to ease and the Fed expands its balance sheet further. We expect these factors... 30th January 2013 · 1 min read
