Global Markets Outlook We forecast stronger equities and a weaker dollar We continue to think that risky assets will gain more ground and that the US dollar will weaken against a backdrop of a recovering global economy and continued accommodative monetary policy. In our... 13th November 2020 · 31 mins read
Global Markets Outlook We think the rally in risky assets will continue While risky assets have already rebounded a long way since their lows in March, we think that they will generally make further ground over the coming months, albeit at a slower pace. That view is... 7th August 2020 · 30 mins read
Global Markets Outlook We think the recovery in risky assets has further to go We forecast further gains in most risky assets between now and the end of next year. This reflects our expectation of a rebound in economic activity starting in the second half of 2020, alongside the... 30th April 2020 · 30 mins read
Global Markets Outlook Weak recovery likely to leave markets treading water After a stellar 2019 for most risky assets, we think that they will generally make only small gains in 2020. Admittedly, our forecasts assume that the effects of the coronavirus outbreak on markets... 27th January 2020 · 31 mins read
Global Markets Outlook Road ahead still looks bumpy for equities We have revised up our end-2019 forecasts for equities, which previously pointed to a large correction. But even without this big pothole, we continue to think that the road ahead for them will be... 31st October 2019 · 30 mins read
Global Markets Outlook Twin stock and bond rally probably nearing an end The strong performance of both equities and government bonds this year reflects a view that monetary easing will put the global economy back on track very soon – an outlook that seems too benign to us... 1st August 2019 · 33 mins read
Global Markets Outlook Policymakers haven’t saved the day We think the assumption in markets that looser policy in the US and China will revive the global economy before very long is too optimistic. We are forecasting further weakness, regardless of whether... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Turning economic cycle favours bonds over equities We think that the darkening prospects for the global economy favour high-grade bonds over equities this year. Our forecasts are for the Chinese and euro-zone economies to lose more momentum, and for a... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook S&P 500, Treasury yields and US dollar all likely to fall We think that the S&P 500, Treasury yields and the US dollar will all fall by the end of next year, as a sharp slowdown in the US economy prompts the Fed to stop hiking rates sooner than investors are... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Trade war not the only headwind for risky assets Worries about a global trade war have already weighed on the prices of many risky assets, particularly those in Asia. And there is a growing risk that the US implements even more protectionist... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Is the party over? In the last edition of The Capital Markets Analyst, we warned that the party in the financial markets might not last much longer. Since then, the US S&P 500 has fallen considerably from a record high... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Will the party last without the punchbowl? The party in the markets has remained in full swing while the Fed has emptied its punchbowl slowly. This year, though, the US central bank is likely to drain it more quickly. And in some other major... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Still too soon to sound the alarm Although the valuations of most risky assets have risen further above their long-run averages during the past quarter, we still don’t expect them to come crashing down any time soon. As we argued in... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Rational exuberance We don’t think that the valuations of many risky assets have become unsustainably high. This is because their rise has been supported by a structural decline in real interest rates, which is likely to... 3rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook The Capital Markets Analyst Q2 2017 - As good as it gets for US assets? We think that the best days are over for assets in the US, in both absolute and relative terms. For example, we expect bond yields to rise further there than in other developed economies over the next... 26th April 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook How will markets deal with President Trump? We expect monetary policy in the US to be tightened by more than investors seem to be anticipating, but agree that in other major developed economies it is likely to remain very loose. With this in... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
