Global Economic Outlook Divergence widens as second waves hit The world economy has clawed back about 60% of the output lost in the first half of the year, but recoveries in most parts of the world have already slowed. Prospects now vary according to success in... 22nd October 2020 · 47 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Recovery to wane as economies diverge The initial rapid pick-up in economic activity has offered encouragement after an almost unprecedented recession. But households and firms will remain in cautious mode, preventing a full V-shaped... 27th July 2020 · 47 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Worst global recession since WWII The disruption relating to the coronavirus is set to cause the steepest fall in global GDP since the Second World War. We are forecasting a 5½% contraction this year, far bigger than the 0.5% fall... 23rd April 2020 · 45 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Nearing a trough We think that global growth is at or near a trough, with leading indicators picking up around the world and some EMs already experiencing a revival. But the global recovery will be gradual and uneven... 27th January 2020 · 43 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Central banks have more work to do Growth has not yet reached a bottom and we expect weakness in advanced economies to drive a further slowdown around the turn of the year. Widespread monetary policy loosening is already underway and... 17th October 2019 · 44 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Weak growth to persist despite policy loosening We see world GDP growth slowing further as the US succumbs to the weakness which is already evident elsewhere. The downturn in global manufacturing is spreading to the services sector and labour... 19th July 2019 · 44 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Much too soon to call a recovery We expect the recent weakness of global growth to persist for much longer than is commonly assumed. Previous policy tightening has yet to take its full toll on activity in the US and China’s stimulus... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook World poised for slowest growth in a decade Global growth looks set to fall to its weakest pace since the financial crisis as slowdowns in the euro-zone and China continue and the US soon joins the mix. Against that backdrop, fears of a surge... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Past the peak Global growth is likely to ease over the next two years, led by slowdowns in the US and China. Although headline inflation should drop back in many advanced economies next year, core inflation will... 22nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Slowdown coming, regardless of trade war Global GDP growth should remain strong over the rest of this year, due to healthy growth in household consumption and business investment. Inflation is likely to trend towards 2% in most advanced... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Slowdown on the horizon Despite some weakness in the first quarter, and concerns about protectionism, global economic growth is likely to hold up well this year. In advanced economies, the outlook for investment and... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Another year of solid growth We expect 2018 to be another year of fairly strong economic growth, led by household consumption and business investment in advanced economies. Inflation will remain subdued, other than in the US... 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Tighter policy won’t derail global recovery The steady economic expansion in advanced economies is set to continue for the next year or two, led by rising household consumption and business investment. Although most economies are approaching... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Strong growth, weak inflation We expect the current period of strong economic growth in advanced economies to continue for the next year or two, led by rising household consumption and business investment. In many countries the... 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook A rising tide Global growth has picked up in recent months and looks set to be fairly strong for the next two years. The US economy has a lot of momentum even without the planned fiscal stimulus, and prospects for... 11th April 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Trumped up? The world economy looks set to grow more rapidly this year than last. A substantial fiscal stimulus in the US will boost its growth rate, but will have only a limited impact on the rest of the world... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
