Global Economics Focus How to think about tariffs In this Focus, we construct a framework to explore the channels through which an import tariff works, which we use to answer key questions about the impact of Trump’s proposals for a 10% universal... 25th November 2024 · 21 mins read
Global Markets Focus The US election and market implications for EMs We think that if vice president Harris wins the US presidential election next week, she would be more likely to stick to policy continuity, and EM risk premia would remain low. If former president... 1st November 2024 · 15 mins read
Global Markets Focus Final thoughts on the US election & market implications While the perceived probability of a Trump win has increased over recent weeks, we believe there is still ample scope for a sizeable repricing across markets once the election outcome becomes clear... 28th October 2024 · 14 mins read
Asset Allocation Focus Rate cuts and asset returns This Focus explores the key lessons from previous Fed easing cycles and explains how these inform our latest financial market forecasts. In short, history supports our call that 10-year Treasury... 12th September 2024 · 18 mins read
Global Markets Focus The US election and financial markets three months out Financial markets have largely taken the dramatic events in the US presidential race over the past month in stride. While the race now appears to be back to a coin toss, the prospect of a second Trump... 1st August 2024 · 18 mins read
FX Markets Focus The euro could stay lower for longer Although the EUR/USD exchange rate is not far above multi-decade lows, we think structural factors mean that the euro is close to “fair value” relative to the US dollar and most other major currencies... 12th June 2024 · 14 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus What would Trump 2.0 mean for Mexico? The impact of a second Trump presidency on Mexico’s economy would depend to a large extent on whether the USMCA deal remains intact or Mexico finds itself subject to US import tariffs. If the latter... 12th March 2024 · 15 mins read
Global Markets Focus Market implications of Trump 2.0 We think victory for Donald Trump in this year’s US presidential election would lead to higher Treasury yields than if incumbent Joe Biden (or another candidate) won. In our view, another Trump term... 22nd February 2024 · 15 mins read
FX Markets Focus Would a US equity bubble coincide with a stronger dollar (again)? We think the current backdrop is not as favourable for the greenback as the one that prevailed during the dot com era, so we doubt the bubble in US equities we expect would be accompanied by renewed... 25th January 2024 · 11 mins read
FX Markets Focus The USD: not the commodity currency you’re looking for The US dollar and the prices of major commodities, in aggregate, have often risen and fallen in tandem since 2021, in contrast to their strong inverse relationship for much of the past two decades... 12th December 2023 · 16 mins read
Global Economics Focus The shape of the fractured world economy in 2024 Our expanded Global Fracturing database allows clients to analyse how geopolitical pressures are reshaping global economic and financial activity. Here, we highlight some of the key findings. 16th November 2023 · 10 mins read
Global Markets Focus Three key lessons on geopolitical risk and markets The war between Hamas and Israel – and the potential for escalation to the wider region – has increased the uncertainty around the economic and financial market outlook, but in most scenarios is... 26th October 2023 · 13 mins read
Global Markets Focus How worried should we be about the Treasury sell-off? The government bond sell-off over the past three months raises uncomfortable questions around the risks of financial instability and the outlook for fiscal policy. This note takes stock of what has... 6th October 2023 · 14 mins read
FX Markets Focus What to make of the sterling quagmire While the UK government’s apparent U-turn on fiscal policy offers some hope of relief for sterling, we think the outlook remains precarious. We continue to expect that sterling will lose further... 20th October 2022 · 12 mins read
India Economics Focus Rupee to reverse course this decade The Indian rupee has continued its long-run trend of depreciation against the US dollar this year, taking it to a record low of 80/$. It may still weaken further in the near term. However, there are... 31st August 2022 · 17 mins read
FX Markets Focus We expect the dollar to stay strong as the Fed tightens The trade-weighted US dollar has edged up to multi-decade highs as the Fed has started to raise its policy rate. In this Focus, we analyse past Fed tightening cycles and explain why we think the... 12th May 2022 · 12 mins read
