Energy Watch Europe’s oil security problem to diminish over time The recent problem of oil contamination in Russia presents an upside risk to our oil price forecast in the short-term. If this develops into a longer-term theme, it could pose a serious risk to... 21st May 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Unravelling the shifting dynamics of spreads There have been some dramatic moves in price spreads between different grades of crude oil in the last year. For the most part, spreads have reflected differences in the underlying physical demand and... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Watch The relationship between oil prices, rigs and output Theoretically, there should be a relationship between the price of oil, the number of oil rigs actively drilling and oil production. However, the relationship appears to have broken down in the past... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Watch The shifting nature of US-Saudi oil relations There has been much commentary in recent months on the balance of power in relations between the US and Saudi Arabia. Many of the areas of mutual interest are geopolitical in nature and we are not... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Watch IMO 2020 not a major issue for oil With the upcoming change to regulations on marine fuel sulphur content due to come into effect on January 2020, this Energy Watch will examine the implications for the oil market. While we don’t... 11th December 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Brent/WTI spread to narrow in 2019 There is now a large differential between the prices of US-based WTI oil and the more international benchmark, Brent. In our view, this spread could widen further in the near term, but we expect it to... 9th October 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Why have US drilling rigs plateaued? The relationship between the number of US drilling rigs and oil prices appears to have broken down recently as drilling rigs have failed to rise in line with oil prices. This Energy Watch will examine... 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Watch How big a risk does Iran pose to oil supply? The most significant threat facing oil markets is the possibility that US sanctions will lead to a sharp drop in exports from Iran. This Energy Watch will examine how much oil could be lost and what... 9th July 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Will OPEC raise output? The next OPEC meeting on 22nd June will probably decide the direction of oil prices over the rest of the year. This Energy Watch will examine how OPEC is progressing towards the aims it set out when... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Will global gas prices finally converge? The surge in availability of liquefied natural gas (LNG), which does not need pipeline infrastructure, has raised the prospect of a more fungible natural gas market. In this Energy Watch, we look at... 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Is OPEC risking its own “taper tantrum”? Oil prices have surged recently, partly due to expectations that OPEC will extend its production cuts into next year. However, some members of the group are emphasising the need for an exit strategy... 28th March 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Is the rally in coal prices burning out? Coal prices have fallen back a little since the start of this year as temperatures increased and supply picked up, but they remain high. This Energy Watch examines the outlook for demand and supply... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Watch China’s slowing oil imports should weigh on prices Strong Chinese demand for oil this year has helped to rebalance the market. However, a slowing economy, an increasing focus on anti-pollution measures in major cities and a reduction in strategic... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Watch OPEC likely to extend output cuts The oil market is largely expecting OPEC to extend its production deal until the end of 2018 at its meeting at the end of November. This Energy Watch will look at some of the options available to the... 27th November 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Watch US natural gas set to burn brighter in 2018 The stability in US natural gas prices since early this year has led many market commentators to assume that prices will be stuck at current levels for the foreseeable future. This Energy Watch will... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Is the surge in oil prices sustainable? The last three months have seen a turnaround in the oil market as investor sentiment turned positive and prices jumped. This Energy Watch will briefly take stock of what has been driving prices up... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
