Energy Watch Oil demand growth to stagnate, not collapse In this Energy Watch, we assess whether concerns about oil demand during a recession are justified. The macroeconomic backdrop has deteriorated substantially and we expect the global economy to topple... 19th October 2022 · 7 mins read
Energy Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Sep.) OPEC’s latest report shows that most producers raised oil output in August, but the gap between targeted production and actual production widened. OPEC also looks optimistic on oil demand to us, which... 13th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Energy Watch Global refinery capacity at its limit without Russia In this Energy Watch, we argue that the refining stage of the petroleum product supply chain could become a bottleneck in crude oil supply getting through to end users in the coming months. Russia’s... 31st May 2022 · 6 mins read
Energy Watch Central and extreme scenarios for coal and natural gas In this Energy Watch, we look at what the war in Ukraine means for the thermal coal and natural gas markets in 2022 . Under our central scenario based on existing Western sanctions, we think Russian... 23rd March 2022 · 8 mins read
Energy Watch China managing a coal market trilemma In this Energy Watch, we look at what recent policy changes mean for China’s coal market . The main take-away is that the changes should increase Chinese coal production and temper demand growth in... 16th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Commodities Watch Latest natural gas price surge will unwind At the time of writing, global natural gas prices are soaring. Dramatic moves in global natural gas prices are nothing new and not even very surprising given the extreme weather over the past year or... 1st October 2021 · 7 mins read
Energy Watch Oil prices would still fall even if OPEC expands In this Energy Watch, we discuss the future of OPEC and its role in the oil market. While we suspect that its membership may expand, we think that its ability to influence oil prices will fall over... 19th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Commodities Watch How the American Jobs Plan could affect commodities In this Commodities Watch, we take a first look at some of the most important features of President Joe Biden’s $2 trillion infrastructure package, known as the American Jobs Plan, from a commodities... 14th May 2021 · 11 mins read
Energy Watch A closer look at the Indian oil sector In this Energy Watch, we examine the outlook for India’s oil sector. We begin by outlining its importance in the context of our macroeconomic research, before considering how the demand and supply... 23rd February 2021 · 6 mins read
Energy Watch What if travel restrictions are not eased later this year? In this Energy Watch, we discuss a key risk to our forecast of a further rise in oil prices by year-end, namely the possibility that insufficient progress on vaccine rollouts and/or concerns over new... 4th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Energy Watch What can rig counts tell us about oil supply? In this Energy Watch, we argue that data on the number of rigs actively drilling for oil can offer a window into future oil production, but that the relationship is far from perfect and the time lags... 17th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Energy Watch The outlook for US shale production Since the outbreak of the coronavirus, oil demand has plummeted, and prices have slumped. In this Energy Watch, we consider what this means for the US shale industry. 21st May 2020 · 6 mins read
Energy Watch Middle East oil supply shocks and the risk premium In this Energy Watch, we look at how geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have historically affected the risk premium in the oil price and what could happen to this premium in the future. We... 7th February 2020 · 8 mins read
Energy Watch No respite for European coal prices European coal prices are close to historic lows. This Energy Watch explains why we think a recovery is not on the cards either in the short or the long run. 24th January 2020 · 5 mins read
Energy Watch Russia to put OPEC+ compliance at risk There is a high risk that a ramp-up in production in Russia pushes OPEC+ output above quota. While we don’t expect this to have a significant impact on prices it would be an additional reason for... 25th November 2019 · 5 mins read
Energy Watch IMO 2020 demand boost will not spark oil price rally The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has set new standards for marine fuel, effective from the start of 2020. The rules have major implications for oil refineries and shipping companies, but... 8th August 2019 · 5 mins read
