Energy Update What to make of Russia and Saudi Arabia’s statement on oil The statement by Russia and Saudi Arabia earlier today that the two countries have agreed to work together to try to stabilise the oil market did very little to justify the almost 6% surge in oil... 5th September 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Taking stock of the EIA’s oil inventories report The gyrations in oil prices in response to the EIA’s weekly petroleum status report are rarely justified, since the biggest determinant of weekly changes in US stocks is variations in net crude... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Oil price rally based on shaky foundations The recent rally in oil prices has been primarily driven by speculation about a possible deal between OPEC and major non-OPEC producers to freeze production. As a result, we think that prices will... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update US gas prices deflate on milder weather outlook US natural gas prices have fallen back in recent weeks, largely as a result of forecasts of milder weather. While we think that production should hold up in the second half of 2016, we are still... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Talks of oil production freeze too little too late We are sceptical that renewed talks of a production freeze by OPEC and other large producers will lead to an actual deal. Even if there is an agreement this time round, we doubt that freezing output... 8th August 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Has the rally in coal prices burnt out? Continued falls in demand and lower Chinese imports in the second half of the year should put downward pressure on coal prices, even if small stocks support prices in the near term. 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Oil prices more likely to rise than fall The recent falls in oil prices have raised concerns that the fuel could be entering a new bear market. However, we think that oil prices are more likely to rebound a little by the end of the year than... 2nd August 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Déjà vu for oil prices? The rally in oil prices over the first half of the year, combined with the recent pull-back, has mirrored the movements in prices in the first half of 2015. However, rather than prices continuing to... 27th July 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Fewer disruptions to oil supplies should limit price gains The return of production from Canada and Nigeria along with a potential increase in output from Libya over the next few months should put some downward pressure on prices. 13th July 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update How could Brexit affect North Sea oil production? The slump in oil prices since 2014 poses a bigger threat to North Sea output than the UK’s vote to leave the EU (‘Brexit’). However, heightened uncertainty, potential tax changes and the possibility... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Coal supply to fall further this year, but so should demand The rally in coal prices over the past month has boosted investor sentiment. Admittedly, production in China, the US and Indonesia has finally started to fall. But prices have now risen to levels... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Increased US drilling activity to limit upside for oil prices Early signs that rising crude prices have induced oil companies to bring drilling rigs back online suggest that US output could rise sooner than previously thought, especially in light of the... 20th June 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Are renewables jumping the queue? A surge in investment in renewable energy capacity over the last few years has led to these alternative power sources taking market share from fossil fuels. This trend looks set to continue over the... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Nigerian oil output disruptions are another wildcard for prices It is likely that further disruptions to Nigerian oil output over the next few weeks and months will continue to support oil prices, even as production from Canada returns. 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Weather forecasts heat up US natural gas prices Forecasts of an abnormally hot summer should continue to see strong demand for electricity supporting US gas prices. But high production and stocks will limit the upside. 8th June 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Rally in coal prices likely to be smothered We think that despite the recent optimism that the worst may be over for coal prices, the ongoing structural decline in demand over the next few years will probably lead to a renewed fall in prices. 7th June 2016 · 1 min read
