Energy Update US foreign policy is a major upside risk for oil prices Donald Trump’s foreign policy, especially regarding the Middle East, is likely to have a bigger impact on oil prices in the near term than changes to domestic energy policies. 6th February 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Higher Chinese oil demand to help rebalance the market Despite a slowdown in economic growth in China from its high at the end of 2016, we expect the country’s oil demand to rise this year. 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update US natural gas prices to rise next year Stronger demand should help to boost US natural gas prices next year. But an increase in supply and high stocks will limit the increase. 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update OPEC deal looks even more perilous Oil prices have been buffeted over the last week by hopes and concerns about the outcome of tomorrow’s OPEC meeting, but we still think that the group will manage to reach a face-saving deal. 29th November 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Growing oil demand quietly rebalancing the market The focus of oil markets over the last few months has been squarely on the potential for OPEC to cut supply. However, growth in demand will have just as big an impact on oil prices over the next year... 24th November 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update What could President Trump mean for energy commodities? Commodity markets shrugged off the surprise victory for Donald Trump in the US Presidential election with the initial falls in oil prices already being reversed, helped by (probably misplaced)... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Coal prices are at the mercy of Chinese policymakers We think that the recent surge in coal prices is unsustainable and expect them to fall back as production rebounds, both inside and outside China, and demand remains weak. However, the extent of any... 8th November 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Renewed drive for energy efficiency to cap oil demand and prices The fall in oil prices over the last two years may explain why the efficiency of oil use is growing more slowly than before 2014, especially in non-OECD economies. However, government regulation and a... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update What might the US election mean for energy commodities? The initial uncertainty created by what would now be a shock win for Donald Trump in November’s US presidential election would surely be negative for the prices of industrial commodities, including... 12th October 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update US natural gas prices unlikely to rise much further Stronger supply and weaker demand from utilities over the next few months, assuming normal weather, should help keep the price of US natural gas steady until the end of the year. 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update What to make of promises of more output from Libya and Nigeria Planned increases in output from Libya and Nigeria makes it even less likely that major oil producers will agree an output freeze next week in Algeria. But the output gains will have to be sustained... 22nd September 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Spare oil production capacity ample for now We think that concerns about the lack of spare capacity in the oil market are overdone as supply is already ample and stocks are high. However, as the market tightens over the next few years, low... 15th September 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update What to make of Russia and Saudi Arabia’s statement on oil The statement by Russia and Saudi Arabia earlier today that the two countries have agreed to work together to try to stabilise the oil market did very little to justify the almost 6% surge in oil... 5th September 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Taking stock of the EIA’s oil inventories report The gyrations in oil prices in response to the EIA’s weekly petroleum status report are rarely justified, since the biggest determinant of weekly changes in US stocks is variations in net crude... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Oil price rally based on shaky foundations The recent rally in oil prices has been primarily driven by speculation about a possible deal between OPEC and major non-OPEC producers to freeze production. As a result, we think that prices will... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update US gas prices deflate on milder weather outlook US natural gas prices have fallen back in recent weeks, largely as a result of forecasts of milder weather. While we think that production should hold up in the second half of 2016, we are still... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
