Energy Update Freezing winter weather heats up energy prices Adverse weather conditions in the US and China have boosted US gas consumption and highlighted China’s dependence on coal. But as the weather normalises, and domestic gas infrastructure improves, we... 11th January 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Oil will struggle to hold on to its gains A combination of falling US stocks, mounting geopolitical risk and OPEC’s deal to extend its output cuts has pushed the price of oil higher in recent weeks. However, we think that rising non-OPEC... 5th January 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Are forecasts for US oil output too optimistic? The recent rise in prices makes a large jump in US oil production next year relatively certain. However, rising costs, fewer efficiency gains and maturing fields will start to weigh on growth towards... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Changes in UK tax will not affect oil prices Changes to the tax treatment of some North Sea oil and gas fields will no doubt be welcomed by the industry and could help to prevent production falling back over the next few years. However, we doubt... 23rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Rise in US coal output not down to Trump The revival in the US coal industry is due to a surge in demand from China and solid domestic consumption, rather than any changes to legislation. However, rising supply, slowing economic growth in... 14th November 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update OPEC unlikely to reach stocks target Even if OPEC extends its output cuts until the end of next year, stocks are still likely to exceed their fiveyear average, which should put some downward pressure on oil prices next year. 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Latest jump in oil prices looks unsustainable Oil prices jumped in recent days on the back of rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East but, assuming that a direct conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran is avoided, the fundamentals suggest... 7th November 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Price of Brent likely to slip back below $60 Growth in non-OPEC supply and lower geopolitical risks means that the price of Brent is unlikely to stay above $60 per barrel, even if OPEC extends its output cuts until the end of the year. 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Rise in coal imports likely to be temporary The rebound in China and India’s coal imports is likely to be short-lived as higher domestic production and slowing consumption growth reduce the need for imports. 25th October 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Iran’s oil exports unlikely to fall any time soon President Trump’s refusal to waive sanctions on Iran’s oil industry has given a boost to oil prices, but it is not a given that Congress will reinstate sanctions and support from international... 16th October 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update LNG rally may run out of steam Temporary supply disruptions and strong demand in Asia have boosted LNG prices to an almost 9-month high. However, the rally may soon lose momentum as winter demand looks set to peak at a time of... 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Will US oil exports really help rebalance the market? The collapse in US net oil imports over the last few weeks has helped to draw down crude inventories in the country. This has raised hopes that market rebalancing is accelerating and has been one... 9th October 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Should the oil market worry about sanctions on Iran? If President Trump refuses to waive the sanctions on Iran’s oil exports then we would expect oil prices to rise. However, it is not clear that Congress would vote to re-impose sanctions on the country... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Oil demand rises as global economy strengthens Global oil demand was given a boost in the second quarter of this year largely due to a stronger global economy. The latest data point to a bright outlook for oil demand over the next year as the... 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Should we expect the rise in coal prices to continue? We are revising our coal price forecast up to take account of the recent rise in prices. However, increasing supply, slowing Chinese demand and more efficient energy alternatives are all likely to... 19th September 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update OPEC open to extending output deal OPEC has recently been hinting that it may prolong its production cuts. However, some members are planning to increase output next year and compliance with the current agreement will probably have to... 13th September 2017 · 1 min read
