Energy Update Oil and coal prices to fall, but gas to remain strong We think that differing outlooks for demand will cause the prices of energy commodities to diverge over the rest of this year, despite their recent close correlation. 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Brent-WTI spread to narrow again The dramatic surge in US oil output so far this year has weighed on the price of WTI and widened the Brent-WTI spread. But we still expect US production to grow strongly in 2018-19. An increase in... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Waning demand for coal to weigh on prices Warmer weather, slower economic growth in China and the rise in renewable and natural gas-fired power generation should help to reverse the recent jump in demand for coal and reduce prices over the... 30th May 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update High oil prices threaten demand growth We expect global oil consumption to rise steadily this year on the back of strong economic growth. However, if oil prices remain around their current levels or rise further, consumption growth could... 22nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update What do US sanctions on Iran mean for OPEC? Even though we doubt that the US sanctions will cause a large fall in Iran’s oil output, the rest of OPEC and Russia have enough spare capacity to prevent a shortage if US sanctions turn out to be... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update What to make of the US sanctions on Iran The re-imposition of US sanctions on Iran is unlikely to have a major impact on global oil supply. However, geopolitical tensions have intensified and if Iran decides to pull out of the nuclear deal... 9th May 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Three reasons why OPEC won’t prolong its cuts The rise in oil prices, fall in crude inventories and surge in non-OPEC production, especially in the US, mean that OPEC is likely to gradually increase output next year rather than extend its cuts. 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update New (higher) forecast for oil prices Given the rise in potential risks to supply, stronger-than-expected demand in Q1 and slumping output in Venezuela, we are revising up our end-2018 forecasts for the prices of Brent and WTI. But we... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update How worried should we be about rising tensions? At least part of this week’s increase in oil prices is justified by the sudden escalation in tensions in the Middle East and resulting risk to oil supplies, either from sanctions or damage to oil... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Oil prices vulnerable to a shift in investor sentiment Near-record non-commercial net-long futures positions in the oil market mean that prices could fall sharply if investor sentiment sours. 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Jump in oil prices likely to be temporary Increasing tensions in the Middle East and expectations that OPEC will extend its output cuts have driven oil prices higher recently. However, even if President Trump reimposes sanctions on Iran... 26th March 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Will the new Chinese crude contract matter for prices? In our view, the new yuan-denominated crude futures contract should have no long-term impact on oil prices, even if it becomes a major benchmark. At any rate, a history of extreme volatility in China... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Robust trade growth to support oil demand Despite the risk of further protectionist measures by President Trump and retaliation by China and the EU, we think that growth in world trade is likely to remain strong this year, which should help... 19th March 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Growth in LNG demand to come off the boil The liquefied natural gas (LNG) market looks set to remain comfortably supplied this year, particularly as we expect growth in Asian LNG demand to slow. Given that we are also forecasting a fall in... 12th March 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update How could NAFTA talks impact energy commodities? Whilst we do not think that the renegotiation of NAFTA is likely to have a significant impact on demand for most energy commodities, the possibility of more protectionist measures and the subsequent... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update How could sanctions on Venezuela impact oil prices? Even if the US imposes sanctions on Venezuela’s oil sector we doubt that the impact on oil prices will be substantial. The US has already halved its imports from Caracas with no discernible effect on... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
