Commodities Outlook Near-term risks largely on the downside The recent more positive tone in commodity markets has been helped by a number of tailwinds that may be about to fade, if not reverse. The boost to Chinese demand from policy stimulus now already... 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Tougher few months in prospect Commodity prices have had a good few months, which is consistent with our relatively positive views on the medium-term outlook. The easing of fears about China’s economy has helped industrials, while... 26th July 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Medium-term prospects remain bright The recent rebounds in many commodity prices have been stronger than even we had anticipated and may be premature. We would not therefore be surprised – or that worried – to see some temporary pull... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Oil to lead a broad-based recovery Despite the rally in the oil market at the end of January, the big picture over the last few months has of course been one of further sharp falls in the prices of most industrial commodities. What's... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook The turn is nigh We expect three factors to combine to rescue the prices of key industrial commodities in the coming months. First, the responses of producers to the previous slump in prices will start to constrain... 19th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Crisis = opportunity? Sentiment towards commodities as an asset class has rarely, if ever, been more negative. This is understandable given the persistent weakness of prices and the headwinds on both the demand and supply... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Turning the corner The (largely positive) views set out in our first quarterly of 2015 have mostly been proved right. We continue to believe that this will be a year of recovery for commodity prices as a whole... 28th April 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook 2015 to be a year of recovering prices 2014 was the fourth successive year of poor performance by commodities, especially relative to bonds and equities, but we believe 2015 will be the year when many finally turn the corner. The recent... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Time to look again at commodities The hype about a supposed “super-cycle” at the start of the decade has been replaced by fears of a prolonged period of “secular stagnation” in commodity prices. As usual, the reality lies somewhere in... 20th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Prospects for metals prices brightening The combination of stronger growth but less stimulatory monetary policy in the US is more likely tobe a net positive for commodity prices – especially industrial metals – than for those of other... 21st July 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Still too soon to call the turn The main upward pressures on commodity prices have recently been coming from the supply-side, including weather shocks (many agriculturals), export bans (some industrial metals), and unplanned outages... 15th April 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Risks (mostly) still on the downside Commodities will not of course underperform other assets for ever, especially with end-user demand supported by a strengthening global economy. In comparison, valuations in equity and bond markets are... 20th January 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Risks still on downside but prices looking more reasonable After two to three years of generally poor performance, many commodity prices have now fallen to levels that are starting to appear attractive again. We still think the near-term risks generally lie... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Headwinds set to persist Commodities are extending their generally poor performance into a third successive year. Concerns about the early withdrawal of monetary stimulus at least are overdone, even though there may still be... 26th July 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Further weakness ahead The recent slump in the prices of most commodities mainly reflects worries about the near-term outlook for economic activity, rather than any deterioration in financial conditions. We expect global... 25th April 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Gains unlikely to be sustained throughout 2013 Improving business conditions and the positive sentiment in financial markets should support the prices of industrial metals and crude oil at least for the remainder of the first quarter and possibly... 1st February 2013 · 1 min read
