Commodities Outlook Oil to lead a broad-based recovery Despite the rally in the oil market at the end of January, the big picture over the last few months has of course been one of further sharp falls in the prices of most industrial commodities. What's... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook The turn is nigh We expect three factors to combine to rescue the prices of key industrial commodities in the coming months. First, the responses of producers to the previous slump in prices will start to constrain... 19th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Crisis = opportunity? Sentiment towards commodities as an asset class has rarely, if ever, been more negative. This is understandable given the persistent weakness of prices and the headwinds on both the demand and supply... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Turning the corner The (largely positive) views set out in our first quarterly of 2015 have mostly been proved right. We continue to believe that this will be a year of recovery for commodity prices as a whole... 28th April 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook 2015 to be a year of recovering prices 2014 was the fourth successive year of poor performance by commodities, especially relative to bonds and equities, but we believe 2015 will be the year when many finally turn the corner. The recent... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Time to look again at commodities The hype about a supposed “super-cycle” at the start of the decade has been replaced by fears of a prolonged period of “secular stagnation” in commodity prices. As usual, the reality lies somewhere in... 20th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Prospects for metals prices brightening The combination of stronger growth but less stimulatory monetary policy in the US is more likely tobe a net positive for commodity prices – especially industrial metals – than for those of other... 21st July 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Still too soon to call the turn The main upward pressures on commodity prices have recently been coming from the supply-side, including weather shocks (many agriculturals), export bans (some industrial metals), and unplanned outages... 15th April 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Risks (mostly) still on the downside Commodities will not of course underperform other assets for ever, especially with end-user demand supported by a strengthening global economy. In comparison, valuations in equity and bond markets are... 20th January 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Risks still on downside but prices looking more reasonable After two to three years of generally poor performance, many commodity prices have now fallen to levels that are starting to appear attractive again. We still think the near-term risks generally lie... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Headwinds set to persist Commodities are extending their generally poor performance into a third successive year. Concerns about the early withdrawal of monetary stimulus at least are overdone, even though there may still be... 26th July 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Further weakness ahead The recent slump in the prices of most commodities mainly reflects worries about the near-term outlook for economic activity, rather than any deterioration in financial conditions. We expect global... 25th April 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Gains unlikely to be sustained throughout 2013 Improving business conditions and the positive sentiment in financial markets should support the prices of industrial metals and crude oil at least for the remainder of the first quarter and possibly... 1st February 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Downside risks to dominate A powerful cocktail of cyclical and structural factors is likely to maintain the downward pressure on commodity prices over the coming months. The launch of QE3 has failed to provide the sustained... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Hopes of second half rebound have weak foundations With the notable exception of the impact of the dry weather in the US on grain markets, macroeconomic and financial factors continued to drag commodity prices lower in the second quarter. The... 11th July 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Prices to drop sharply on euro break-up fears Most commodity prices made a strong start to 2012, helped by increasing hopes that the US will lead a strong recovery in the global economy, declining fears of a “hard landing” in China, and faith... 14th February 2012 · 1 min read