Climate Economics Focus Transition impacts in the spotlight The fact that climate mitigation policies can manifest themselves in a range of macroeconomic outcomes will make it difficult for central bankers to know how to respond appropriately. Meanwhile, the... 27th November 2024 · 15 mins read
Global Economics Focus How to think about tariffs In this Focus, we construct a framework to explore the channels through which an import tariff works, which we use to answer key questions about the impact of Trump’s proposals for a 10% universal... 25th November 2024 · 21 mins read
Event Drop-In: Trump, OPEC, China – What’s driving oil prices in 2025? 1732719600 An oil market that has mostly looked through a year of Middle East conflict now faces fresh, Trump-shaped, uncertainty.
Canada Economics Focus What comes after the carbon tax is axed? With the Conservatives currently on track to win a clear majority at the next federal election, which is due by October 2025 but could come much earlier, there is a high chance that the carbon tax... 28th October 2024 · 14 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus EMs, fracturing and the scramble for raw materials Access to commodities – particularly critical minerals – is a growing area of competition between China and the West. And those EMs with deposits of the minerals used in new and low-carbon... 3rd October 2024 · 13 mins read
Climate Economics Focus How big a blow would Trump deal to green policy? A return of President Trump to the White House would be a shot across the bows for global efforts to reduce emissions – particularly as he would almost certainly withdraw the US from the Paris... 25th June 2024 · 13 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus EM winners and losers from the green transition The green transition will deal a significant blow to EM oil producers that have failed to save their windfalls (Nigeria, Colombia, Angola), but boost the export revenues of economies such as Chile and... 4th March 2024 · 14 mins read
Climate Economics Focus Forecasting near-term moves in the carbon price This final report of a three-part mini-series establishes a framework for assessing the outlook for the EU carbon price. It takes an in-depth look at the various factors that typically drive the EU... 22nd February 2024 · 7 mins read
Climate Economics Focus Modelling market fundamentals and price dynamics This second report of a three-part mini-series establishes a framework for assessing the outlook for the EU carbon price. It sets out our approach for modelling the fundamental price of an EU carbon... 22nd February 2024 · 10 mins read
Climate Economics Focus A primer on the EU’s emissions trading scheme This first report of a three-part mini-series explains what an emissions trading scheme (ETS) is and how the ETS has evolved since its introduction in 2005. It then explores how reforms to the ETS... 22nd February 2024 · 13 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Will Chile seize the green transition opportunity? Chile is frequently identified as one of the main beneficiaries of global efforts to put economies on a greener footing, but we doubt that the country will reap the full benefits of this trend. Chile... 6th February 2024 · 21 mins read
Metals Focus Introducing our lithium price forecast We forecast that global lithium demand will roughly double by 2025 (from 2022). But supply will increase at a slower pace, which is why we forecast that prices will rise. In this Metals Focus, we set... 31st January 2024 · 11 mins read
Global Economics Focus The shape of the fractured world economy in 2024 Our expanded Global Fracturing database allows clients to analyse how geopolitical pressures are reshaping global economic and financial activity. Here, we highlight some of the key findings. 16th November 2023 · 10 mins read
Climate Economics Focus Making sense of the ESG bond premium A lack of appropriate regulation may be one reason why ESG bond issuance has slowed over recent years, and why the premium that investors are willing to pay for ESG bonds over conventional bonds has... 14th November 2023 · 15 mins read
India Economics Focus Mapping India’s energy demand and emissions The government’s ambition of developing a globally-competitive manufacturing sector, combined with relatively slow progress on shifting away from using coal for electricity production, means India... 23rd August 2023 · 12 mins read
Energy Focus The implications of EV rollouts on DM oil demand The message from electric vehicle sales data is now clear: the EV revolution is alive and kicking and poses important implications for oil demand. We are slightly more optimistic on the pace of EV... 31st July 2023 · 19 mins read
