China Chart Pack Mirage of strong foreign demand Over-invoicing by exporters over the last five months has significantly inflated the apparent strength of overseas demand. While official customs data show a surge in exports, this is not evident in... 17th May 2013 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Recovery hopes dashed The release of China’s weak Q1 GDP data jolted markets worldwide. Consensus forecasts for 2013 growth have been lowered. The prospect of significant policy tightening, including benchmark rate hikes... 18th April 2013 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack The People’s Bank is back The People’s Bank of China (PBC) sat on the sidelines of foreign exchange markets in 2012 with net purchases close to zero for much of the year. But it has burst back into the game, buying $56bn of... 28th March 2013 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Current account bottoming out China’s current account surplus edged up last year both in dollar terms and relative to the size of the global economy. We suspect that further increases lie ahead as China’s investment spending slows... 14th February 2013 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Shanghai equities soar The Shanghai Composite index has risen 17% since early December. Even so, a trailing price/earnings ratio under 13 and the backdrop of a strengthening economy suggest that prices could rise much... 24th January 2013 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Reform expectations raised for 2013 China’s new leadership has raised expectations for economic policy reform in 2013 but, judging from the outcome of the Economic Work Conference that just concluded in Beijing, it has not yet decided... 17th December 2012 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Private sector on sidelines of investment rebound The last two months have brought strong evidence that China’s economy is picking up speed. But this is a lopsided recovery. Small firms are still struggling, according to the official manufacturing... 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Renminbi picks up speed ahead of US elections The renminbi has risen 2% against the dollar since the end of July, erasing all of its losses in the year to date. There appear to be two factors at work. One is a renewed appetite for the renminbi... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Stimulus hopes fizzle out Talk of a new stimulus package in China produced a 4% rally in the Shanghai Composite in the space of two days earlier this month. The turnaround was triggered by the government’s announcement that it... 17th September 2012 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Property market rebound tests policymakers Market sentiment about China’s property policy has executed an abrupt U-turn. Early this year, speculation was mounting that the government would loosen its controls on the sector in response to the... 21st August 2012 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Labour market health belies talk of hard landing China’s economy is growing at one of the slowest rates in years but the labour market is showing few signs of strain. Migrant wages were up 13% y/y last quarter. There are still more jobs being... 19th July 2012 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Stimulus to support investment rebound There were signs in May’s data that economic growth was stabilising. In particular, industrial output growth reversed a small part of the April slump. This was most likely the result of a pick-up in... 14th June 2012 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack April disappointment The data for April were appalling. Economic activity was much weaker than expected across a wide swath of the economy, with imports, industrial output and fiscal revenue hit particularly hard... 16th May 2012 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Glimmers of hope in March It was not hard to find evidence of economic weakness in China in Q1. Imports, retail spending, property sales and, of course, GDP growth all slowed. But there were glimmers of a turnaround towards... 26th April 2012 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Still waiting for stimulus to be felt The data for the first two months of the year were in general downbeat. Everything from imports to electricity and cement production slowed. Still, Q1 was always likely to be weak. Policy loosening... 21st March 2012 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Policy loosening proceeds at a crawl Nearly three months after the People’s Bank signalled a shift in stance and first cut the required reserve ratio, policy remains tight. Admittedly, benchmark interest rates never climbed back to the... 21st February 2012 · 1 min read
