China Chart Pack Hand of People’s Bank seen in currency fall A rare trade deficit in February relieved some of the upward pressure on therenminbi, but the latest data suggest that the People’s Bank (PBOC) additionally purchased around $25bn of foreign exchange... 19th March 2014 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack No shift of monetary stance January’s surge in bank lending in China does not signal any change in policy stance. Bank lending is always strong in January. Looked at in y/y terms, last month’s increase in loan growth was barely... 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Credit risks remain high Worries about the health of China’s financial sector have been eased by today’s news that a high-profile default has been avoided on a troubled RMB3bn trust product (“Credit Equals Gold No. 1”). In... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Local government debt key challenge for 2014 China's government has sounded a sanguine note about GDP growth at the close of its Economic Work Conference. Monetary policy will remain "prudent" and fiscal policy "proactive" in 2014. In practice... 13th December 2013 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Plenum promises shift in market rules The reform plan unveiled following the Third Plenum has refocused attention on the position of state-owned firms in China’s economy. During the first decade of this century, China’s state sector... 18th November 2013 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Property sales not keeping up with sentiment For all the headlines talking about a rebounding property sector in China, sales over the past few months have been no higher than they were a year ago. Developers may be benefiting from price rises... 23rd October 2013 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack State sector leads a rebound August’s data confirmed that the economy has turned a corner. Industrial output growth was the strongest since spring last year. Investment and exports also gathered pace. It is notable though that... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack NPLs continue to pick up There has been an increase in the value of non-performing loans (NPLs) in the banking system since Q3 2011, as the economy has slowed. At face value, this problem does not yet appear too serious... 15th August 2013 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Credit starts to slow Credit growth slowed last month, a sign that the cash crunch delivered some of what policymakers were hoping for. But credit is still expanding more than twice as fast as economic output, which means... 19th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Digger sales may give early hint of rebound The high profile data releases of the last week have provided little evidence that growth in China is picking up, even though credit has now been expanding at a rapid pace for several months. But... 13th June 2013 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Mirage of strong foreign demand Over-invoicing by exporters over the last five months has significantly inflated the apparent strength of overseas demand. While official customs data show a surge in exports, this is not evident in... 17th May 2013 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Recovery hopes dashed The release of China’s weak Q1 GDP data jolted markets worldwide. Consensus forecasts for 2013 growth have been lowered. The prospect of significant policy tightening, including benchmark rate hikes... 18th April 2013 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack The People’s Bank is back The People’s Bank of China (PBC) sat on the sidelines of foreign exchange markets in 2012 with net purchases close to zero for much of the year. But it has burst back into the game, buying $56bn of... 28th March 2013 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Current account bottoming out China’s current account surplus edged up last year both in dollar terms and relative to the size of the global economy. We suspect that further increases lie ahead as China’s investment spending slows... 14th February 2013 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Shanghai equities soar The Shanghai Composite index has risen 17% since early December. Even so, a trailing price/earnings ratio under 13 and the backdrop of a strengthening economy suggest that prices could rise much... 24th January 2013 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Reform expectations raised for 2013 China’s new leadership has raised expectations for economic policy reform in 2013 but, judging from the outcome of the Economic Work Conference that just concluded in Beijing, it has not yet decided... 17th December 2012 · 1 min read
