China Chart Pack Government still central to the recovery (Mar 10) Chinese consumers played a major role in supporting economic growth over the past year. Even at the depths of the global crisis, consumer spending barely slowed. But this was not entirely because of... 4th March 2010 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Still waiting for Chinese consumption (Feb 10) The economic data have on the whole been very encouraging over recent weeks, but this strength has only fuelled market concerns about inflation and the prospect of monetary tightening. These worries... 5th February 2010 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Tightening to proceed very gradually (Jan 10) Last week’s increase in the required reserve ratio for commercial banks was a strong signal that the ultra-loose monetary policy of 2009 is being reversed. Increases to administered interest rates are... 19th January 2010 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack China confirms policy continuity for 2010 (Dec 09) The annual Economic Work Conference broke up today with the expected commitment from China’s leaders to keep supportive monetary and fiscal policy in place while managing inflation expectations... 7th December 2009 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack China returned to rapid growth in Q3 (Oct 09) Nearly a year after exports collapsed, China’s economy is once again expanding at a frenetic pace. There are medium term risks in the form of industrial overcapacity, weaker banks and the threat that... 23rd October 2009 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack China shows no signs of flagging (Sep 09) China’s August data provided further evidence that the upswing in activity is still gathering pace. Savers are moving funds to easier-to-access demand accounts, and lending is still growing rapidly... 24th September 2009 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack China on a risky path to recovery (Jul 09) Continued rapid loan growth in China makes the emergence of asset bubbles increasingly likely. Around a fifth of loans extended so far this year have been invested in the stock markets, according to... 24th July 2009 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Still waiting for a rebound (May 09) A mixed set of data over the past month has dampened hopes that rapid recovery is already underway in China. Reported investment growth is rising, yet sales of key investment inputs such as steel... 24th May 2009 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack China’s spending stimulus is smaller than it seems (Apr 09) On the eve of the G20 meeting, the received wisdom is that China has responded more forcefully to the global crisis than most others. The government budget has indeed turned sharply into deficit, but... 24th April 2009 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Too soon to expect a rebound in China (Feb 09) A surge in bank lending in China has raised confidence that the government’s efforts to stimulate the economy are already bearing fruit. Shares prices in Shanghai have risen 22% since the start of the... 24th February 2009 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Growth halved and heading to 5% (Jan 09) China’s economic growth rate has halved in 18 months. We estimate that GDP increased by little more than 6% y/y in the fourth quarter after 9% in the third and a peak of 12.6% in the second quarter of... 24th January 2009 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Will the stimulus come too late? (Dec 08) A run of poor data and doubts about the effectiveness of the government’s stimulus plans have prompted us to cut our 2009 GDP growth forecast for China from 8% to 7%. Admittedly, the government’s... 24th December 2008 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack China moves to arrest slowdown (Nov 08) Global financial market turmoil and the dollar rebound have been reflected in further equity market weakness in China and in a surge in the renminbi’s tradeweighted exchange rate. But global weakness... 24th November 2008 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Fall in renminbi appreciation expectations is overdone (Aug 08) Officials at the People’s Bank of China should be feeling pretty pleased with themselves. Market expectations for future renminbi appreciation have tumbled following a month of slower currency gains... 24th August 2008 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Chinese equity investors floundering again (Jun 08) China’s equity investors have been left stunned by a 20% fall in prices since the beginning of June. This has taken the benchmark Shanghai Composite index beneath the 3000 level that many investors... 24th June 2008 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Chinese equity investors floundering again (May 08) China’s headline inflation eased in March, but there are worrying signs that price pressures may be spreading beyond food. The activity data confirm that the economy remains strong, easing at least... 24th May 2008 · 1 min read
