China Activity Monitor CAP: Output to stagnate in 2022 despite latest bounce Our China Activity Proxy suggests that around half of the drop in output during the recent virus wave reversed in May. This recovery looks to have continued in June. But a lot of damage has already... 22nd June 2022 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Outbreaks knock output back to 2019 levels Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that all of China’s pandemic-era growth has been reversed by recent lockdowns, with output in April no higher than during 2019. Activity should start to rebound... 26th May 2022 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor Economy pushed backwards by Omicron Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that lockdowns in Jilin and Shenzhen triggered an outright contraction in the economy in March, even before restrictions were tightened in Shanghai and... 27th April 2022 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor A stronger start to 2022 gives way to fresh weakness Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the economy started the year on a stronger footing than it ended 2021. But these gains are already being derailed by China’s worst virus outbreak since... 22nd March 2022 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor Starting 2022 on the back foot Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that China’s economy was still struggling to regain momentum at the end of last year amid troubles in the property sector and recurrent COVID outbreaks which... 24th January 2022 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor Virus disruption compounding property strains China’s economy started 2021 above its pre-pandemic path of output, thanks to stimulus and surging global export demand. Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the economy is ending the year... 20th December 2021 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor Service sector recovery remains lacklustre Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) shows that growth ticked up last month as energy shortages eased and the service sector continued to recover from virus disruptions over the summer. But the rebound... 24th November 2021 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor Services recovering but outlook still gloomy Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) shows that output rebounded last month as the disruption to the service sector from virus outbreaks eased. But this wasn’t enough to prevent a sharp contraction last... 25th October 2021 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor Delta blow to give way to property downturn Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that economic output dropped back sharply in August. The big hit to services activity from efforts to contain the Delta variant should mostly reverse this month... 27th September 2021 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor Delta speed bump not the only drag Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that output dropped back further in July. This shouldn’t be dismissed as a temporary setback due to the recent virus outbreak. The main drag last month came... 24th August 2021 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor Downhill from here? Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth accelerated in q/q terms last quarter but that output edged down in June on the back of softer industrial and construction activity. We think China... 22nd July 2021 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor Still strong but probably close to a cyclical peak Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that output remained strong in May but didn’t rise much further, with slowing credit growth weighing on construction and China’s pandemic-induced export boom... 23rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor Surprising on the upside Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that output rose further above its pre-virus trend last month thanks to the recent rebound in services and continued strength in industry and construction. We... 28th May 2021 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor A stronger end to a weaker quarter Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth picked up last month as virus containment efforts were lifted. But this wasn’t enough to prevent a marked slowdown in q/q growth last quarter. With... 26th April 2021 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor Rebound levelling off as tighter policy starts to bite Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) shows a surge in year-on-year growth at the start of 2021. But the picture is more mixed after accounting for favourable base effects. Buoyant foreign demand boosted... 24th March 2021 · 4 mins read
China Activity Monitor Growth edges down slightly at the end of 2020 Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth softened slightly at the end of 2020 but remained strong on the back of a further improvement in services. Domestic consumption should continue to... 22nd January 2021 · 3 mins read
