China Activity Monitor Starting 2022 on the back foot Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that China’s economy was still struggling to regain momentum at the end of last year amid troubles in the property sector and recurrent COVID outbreaks which... 24th January 2022 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor Virus disruption compounding property strains China’s economy started 2021 above its pre-pandemic path of output, thanks to stimulus and surging global export demand. Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the economy is ending the year... 20th December 2021 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor Service sector recovery remains lacklustre Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) shows that growth ticked up last month as energy shortages eased and the service sector continued to recover from virus disruptions over the summer. But the rebound... 24th November 2021 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor Services recovering but outlook still gloomy Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) shows that output rebounded last month as the disruption to the service sector from virus outbreaks eased. But this wasn’t enough to prevent a sharp contraction last... 25th October 2021 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor Delta blow to give way to property downturn Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that economic output dropped back sharply in August. The big hit to services activity from efforts to contain the Delta variant should mostly reverse this month... 27th September 2021 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor Delta speed bump not the only drag Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that output dropped back further in July. This shouldn’t be dismissed as a temporary setback due to the recent virus outbreak. The main drag last month came... 24th August 2021 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor Downhill from here? Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth accelerated in q/q terms last quarter but that output edged down in June on the back of softer industrial and construction activity. We think China... 22nd July 2021 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor Still strong but probably close to a cyclical peak Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that output remained strong in May but didn’t rise much further, with slowing credit growth weighing on construction and China’s pandemic-induced export boom... 23rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor Surprising on the upside Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that output rose further above its pre-virus trend last month thanks to the recent rebound in services and continued strength in industry and construction. We... 28th May 2021 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor A stronger end to a weaker quarter Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth picked up last month as virus containment efforts were lifted. But this wasn’t enough to prevent a marked slowdown in q/q growth last quarter. With... 26th April 2021 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor Rebound levelling off as tighter policy starts to bite Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) shows a surge in year-on-year growth at the start of 2021. But the picture is more mixed after accounting for favourable base effects. Buoyant foreign demand boosted... 24th March 2021 · 4 mins read
China Activity Monitor Growth edges down slightly at the end of 2020 Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth softened slightly at the end of 2020 but remained strong on the back of a further improvement in services. Domestic consumption should continue to... 22nd January 2021 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor Growth still being buoyed by stimulus & exports Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth remained robust last month thanks to a further pick-up in services and continued strength in construction and exports. We expect growth to remain... 21st December 2020 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor Growth accelerates to a three-year high Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth continued to accelerate last month as service sector activity returned to its pre-virus path, while strong construction and exports continued to... 19th November 2020 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor Growth hits a two-year high Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth continued to accelerate last month, thanks to policy stimulus, strong foreign demand and fewer constraints on services activity. On our estimates... 22nd October 2020 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor Growth now back to pre-virus path Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth continued to accelerate last month. On our estimates, China is already back on its pre-virus growth path, far earlier than other major economies... 23rd September 2020 · 3 mins read
