China Activity Monitor CAP: Recovery levels off as reopening boost fades Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that China’s economy stagnated in May as the tailwind from reopening fizzled out. We think officials will roll out sufficient policy support to keep the... 26th June 2023 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Service sector keeps the recovery alive Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) shows that, despite losing some momentum, the economic recovery was still making progress at the start of Q2. And we think there is still scope for further improvement... 29th May 2023 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Q1 surge will push 2023 growth over 8% Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) shows that the economy bounced back rapidly in Q1, with growth since the start of the pandemic now broadly back in line with the official GDP data. And while the... 26th April 2023 · 4 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Most rapid phase of recovery has passed Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) shows a sizeable rebound in services activity early in 2023. While it hasn’t completely run its course, the recovery will slow over the next few months. 29th March 2023 · 4 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Dismal 2022 makes way for a stronger 2023 Our China Activity Proxy suggests that output was still depressed at the end of 2022, though it held up surprisingly well in the face of a huge reopening wave of infections. With the virus situation... 19th January 2023 · 4 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Service sector is still reeling Our China Activity Proxy reveals the extent of the economic damage being done by the zero-COVID policy in its final weeks. Hopes that its ending would lead to a rapid recovery have been dashed though... 22nd December 2022 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Weakening again in the face of COVID Our China Activity Proxy suggests that virus disruption led to a further decline in output in October. The combination of tightening COVID restrictions, voluntary isolation in the face of rising cases... 23rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Knocked off course yet again Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that output declined in September by the most since the Omicron wave. The main culprit – renewed disruption from virus curbs – appears to have worsened further... 25th October 2022 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Treading water as virus disruptions return Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that virus disruption and cooling exports caused the economy to stagnate in August. September was likely worse and there is little upside in the near-term. 28th September 2022 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Recovery loses steam at the start of H2 Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the economic rebound following the hit from lockdowns had petered out in July. And despite increased policy support, growing headwinds will continue to... 22nd August 2022 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Economy on the mend but still limping Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the economic hit from lockdowns had largely reversed in June. But infection numbers are ticking up again. And even if another large-scale virus wave is... 21st July 2022 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Output to stagnate in 2022 despite latest bounce Our China Activity Proxy suggests that around half of the drop in output during the recent virus wave reversed in May. This recovery looks to have continued in June. But a lot of damage has already... 22nd June 2022 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Outbreaks knock output back to 2019 levels Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that all of China’s pandemic-era growth has been reversed by recent lockdowns, with output in April no higher than during 2019. Activity should start to rebound... 26th May 2022 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor Economy pushed backwards by Omicron Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that lockdowns in Jilin and Shenzhen triggered an outright contraction in the economy in March, even before restrictions were tightened in Shanghai and... 27th April 2022 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor A stronger start to 2022 gives way to fresh weakness Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the economy started the year on a stronger footing than it ended 2021. But these gains are already being derailed by China’s worst virus outbreak since... 22nd March 2022 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor Starting 2022 on the back foot Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that China’s economy was still struggling to regain momentum at the end of last year amid troubles in the property sector and recurrent COVID outbreaks which... 24th January 2022 · 3 mins read
