Global Economics Focus The Shape of the Fractured World in 2025 The share of the fracturing global economy that is accounted for by China and its geopolitical allies contracted in 2024, leaving it under a third the size of the US bloc at the start of 2025. This... 17th January 2025 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Focus Trump, Tariffs, and the 51st State Following President Donald Trump's latest threat to impose a 25% tariff on Canada (and Mexico), we are re-sending this Focus which considers the consequences of those tariffs for the Canadian economy... 9th January 2025 · 19 mins read
Global Economics Focus Trump and the implications for global fracturing Donald Trump’s second term could redraw the global geopolitical map. A sustainable “Grand Bargain” with China, warmer relations with Russia, or a breakdown in the relationship between the US and its... 7th January 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Focus How to think about tariffs In this Focus, we construct a framework to explore the channels through which an import tariff works, which we use to answer key questions about the impact of Trump’s proposals for a 10% universal... 25th November 2024 · 21 mins read
Canada Economics Focus What does a declining population mean for Canada? The government’s plan to trim the population will hit potential GDP growth and, given the headwinds for residential investment, reduce the chance of GDP reaching that lower potential level. Rents on... 31st October 2024 · 15 mins read
Canada Economics Focus What comes after the carbon tax is axed? With the Conservatives currently on track to win a clear majority at the next federal election, which is due by October 2025 but could come much earlier, there is a high chance that the carbon tax... 28th October 2024 · 14 mins read
Global Economics Focus How to gauge recession risk in DMs Getting an early steer on whether an economy has entered recession requires a holistic assessment of a variety of indicators to see if multiple variables are flagging recession at the same time. In... 9th September 2024 · 16 mins read
Canada Economics Focus Stronger productivity growth ahead There are several structural factors that explain the underperformance of Canadian productivity growth compared to the US since the 1980s, but the underperformance in the last few years specifically... 23rd July 2024 · 15 mins read
Global Economics Focus Have we reached the end of the housing correction? Housing markets in developed economies have perplexed forecasters since 2019. The boom in prices in 2020-22 was not anticipated, and the fall in prices since has been smaller than expected. In this... 14th February 2024 · 17 mins read
Canada Economics Focus Wage growth set to slow The recent acceleration in the Labour Force Survey measure of wage growth seems to be overstating wage pressures. The other wage indicators, which are normally more reliable, show far lower rates of... 1st February 2024 · 11 mins read
Global Economics Focus The shape of the fractured world economy in 2024 Our expanded Global Fracturing database allows clients to analyse how geopolitical pressures are reshaping global economic and financial activity. Here, we highlight some of the key findings. 16th November 2023 · 10 mins read
Global Economics Focus Introducing our new financial conditions indices (FCIs) We have revamped our financial conditions indices (FCIs) for DM economies. This document sets out a framework for analysing financial conditions, explains our methodology, presents and interprets our... 18th April 2023 · 20 mins read
Canada Economics Focus Is 2% core inflation feasible this year? Underlying inflation pressures are still well above the 2% mid-point of the Bank of Canada’s target range, but there are several reasons to expect disinflationary forces to build. We forecast that CPI... 5th April 2023 · 13 mins read
Canada Economics Focus Lack of supply not the main cause of high house prices Canada has built fewer new homes relative to population growth than other advanced economies, but this alone cannot explain the much larger rise in house prices during the last decade. Looser credit... 1st February 2023 · 14 mins read
Canada Economics Focus Will a housing downturn crash the economy? We expect higher interest rates to cause a 10% fall in house prices over the next 12 months and an even steeper fall in residential investment. With the rest of the economy still recovering from the... 9th May 2022 · 12 mins read
Canada Economics Focus Residential investment now the key downside risk The sheer scale of the surge in residential investment since the pandemic means it now presents a key downside risk to the outlook. At best, the widely held assumption that residential investment will... 6th July 2021 · 14 mins read
