Canada Chart Pack Economic growth already fading again After a brief surge at the start of this year, GDP growth has already slowed markedly in recent months. (See Chart.) Unfortunately, the recent limited rebound in commodity prices won’t be enough to... 14th July 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Second-quarter GDP growth likely to be dismal Although incoming data indicate that first-quarter GDP grew by as much as 2.8% annualised, we doubt this marks the beginning of an upturn in economic growth prospects. Economic growth in that quarter... 26th April 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Housing imbalances continue to worsen Nothing illustrates the regional divergence in Canada’s economy like housing. While house prices continue to surge in the already most over-valued markets in Vancouver and Toronto, Calgary and other... 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Another interest rate cut shouldn’t be ruled out Financial markets are going cold on the prospect of another rate cut from the Bank of Canada. The Bank has already cut rates twice this year in response to the oil shock. Although the economy may no... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Manufacturing now faces an even greater challenge Despite the rebound in sales volumes over the summer, Canada’s export-orientated manufacturing sector has struggled repeatedly to sustain any gains in over the past two years or so. Even though US... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Economy struggling to escape recession Since oil prices first began to fall last year, Canada’s economic performance has gone from mediocre to dismal, culminating in a mild recession in the first half of this year. With oil prices tumbling... 19th August 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Oil price shock part II The latest renewed slump in world and domestic crude oil prices is another blow to the outlook for Canada's oil-dependent economy, which has already slipped into a mild recession. With the fallout... 20th July 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Flagging economy will prompt more rate cuts The futures market indicates that most investors are now convinced by the Bank of Canada's view that the January interest rate cut will be enough to prevent the economy from being derailed by the... 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack January rate cut won't be enough insurance The futures market indicates that most investors are now convinced by the Bank of Canada's view that the January interest rate cut will be enough to prevent the economy from being derailed by the... 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Economy slowing sharper than headlines suggest Canada's economy continued to lose momentum in the final quarter of last year and the slowdown was only partly due to lower oil prices. Furthermore, the seemingly gradual slowdown in headline GDP... 19th March 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Bank of Canada to cut interest rates again The slump in oil prices has dramatically altered the outlook for economic growth and inflation. Following the Bank of Canada's surprise move last month to cut its policy rate to 0.75%, from 1.00%... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Low oil prices will hit business profits hard Since oil now accounts for half of Canada's production-weighted commodity price index, the collapse in crude oil prices represents a big downside risk to the outlook for business operating profits... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Lower oil prices will hold back economy The slump in the crude oil prices to around US$60 per barrel is a serious threat to domestic business investment and future oil production. With the long-run breakeven cost of most oil sands projects... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Multi-unit home building still in overdrive The unexpected decline in housing starts in October, which was driven by a sharp drop in the volatile multi-unit segment, is likely to be reversed in the coming months, reigniting concerns about... 11th November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Falling oil prices to curb investor enthusiasm The recent decline in crude oil prices won't affect the immediate outlook for oil & gas production but, if sustained, lower oil prices could curb investment in Canada's oil sands, particularly as... 7th October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Housing imbalances point to a slowdown ahead Housing starts have been running at close to 190,000 units over the past year, well above demographic demand, which we estimate is somewhere in the range of 175,000 to 185,000 units. Meanwhile, newly... 9th September 2014 · 1 min read