Canada Chart Pack Yield curve not a perfect recession indicator in Canada The Canadian yield curve has flattened to its lowest level since the run-up to the late 2008 recession but, unlike in the US, it is not an infallible indicator for predicting economic downturns... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Household credit growth slows sharply Rising interest rates and the recent tightening of mortgage lending standards are now having a marked impact on mortgage lending, with the three-month-on-three-month annualised growth rate of mortgage... 29th May 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Households already being squeezed by higher rates Consumption growth was the key driver behind the Canadian economy’s recent strength, particularly in the first half of last year. Since mid-2017, however, retail sales volumes have largely stagnated... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Home sales slump worsening The further drop in home sales last month confirms that the slowdown in trend sales that began around a year and a half ago has worsened. Unfortunately, prospective home buyers and sellers are now... 20th March 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Core inflation edging closer to 2% target The Bank of Canada’s preferred core inflation measures have trended higher and are close to the 2% inflation target. Despite the drop in headline inflation in January, the core inflation data will... 26th February 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Higher interest rates a big gamble The Bank of Canada’s decision to raise interest rates to 1.25% yesterday has reinforced expectations of further rate hikes later this year. According to futures markets, there is a 22% chance of a... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Markets expecting more than one rate hike in 2018 The Bank of Canada’s decision to raise interest rates twice this year and the reminder by Governor Stephen Poloz last week that “the economy will need less monetary stimulus over time” have resulted... 20th December 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Softwood lumber production should rebound The recent decision by the US to impose countervailing and dumping duties on imports of Canadian softwood lumber appears to have dampened softwood lumber production, despite favourable lumber prices... 21st November 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Canadian dollar likely to drop further next year After strengthening to US$0.82 in early September, interest rate differentials have pushed the Canadian dollar back down to US$0.79. We expect a further widening in rate differentials next year, with... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Markets bracing for another interest rate hike The Bank of Canada’s bold call to raise interest rates again so soon after its well-telegraphed July hike caught some investors completely by surprise, resulting in a sharp increase in rate... 13th September 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Toronto housing market down and out Resale housing activity in Toronto plunged more than 40% last month and signs point to continued weakness in August. In similar fashion to Vancouver, resale activity will likely flounder over the... 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Vancouver housing remains in the doldrums Despite widespread claims by housing pundits that Vancouver’s housing market is recovering from last year’s slump, the incoming data so far this month continue to show that home sales there are... 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Housing market poised for correction Toronto’s housing real estate boom is turning to bust. After reaching a record high last quarter, seasonally adjusted home sales have plummeted by 30% so far this quarter, while new listings activity... 13th June 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Household sector still boosting economy The economy likely began this year strongly, with real GDP expanding at an annualised quarterly growth rate of 4.5%. The strength in monthly housing and consumption indicators, however, show that the... 26th April 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Exports should rebound from recent slump After a long period of disappointment, the recent pick-up in global manufacturing activity points to a rebound in non-commodity export growth in the coming months. We think it would take a marked... 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Below target inflation leaves little room for error The recent slowdown in all three new core inflation measures suggest that the excess slack in the economy is building. The core CPI-common measure, which tracks the output gap most closely is of... 28th February 2017 · 1 min read
