Canada Chart Pack Core inflation unlikely to rise further We expect an average of the Bank’s core inflation measures to remain close to 2% this year, before declining in 2020, as GDP growth falls below potential. An average of the Bank of Canada’s three core... 25th June 2019 · 9 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Employment gains set to slow The one bright spot over the past six months has been the strength of the labour market. The Labour Force Survey revealed a record-breaking 107,000 jump in employment in April. Even the more reliable... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Surveys remain consistent with slow growth The Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey showed that firms’ expectations for future sales improved only slightly at the start of the year. The future sales balance is still consistent with annual... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Markets right to price in rate cuts While our GDP growth forecasts are far below consensus, the narrowing and even outright inversion of parts of the yield curve in the past month suggests that investors also have little faith in the... 26th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Export prospects further deteriorate The decline in the global manufacturing PMI to a two-year low in January suggests that prospects for Canadian exporters have deteriorated further. On past form, the global PMI is broadly consistent... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Surveys point to growth slowdown The Bank of Canada’s fourth-quarter Business Outlook Survey revealed a sharp deterioration in firms’ expectations for future sales. In fact, the future sales balance dropped into negative territory... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Core inflation set to fall further Two of the Bank of Canada’s three measures of core inflation, CPI-trim and CPI-median, declined in November. As a result, an average of the three measures fell to 1.9%, the lowest in five months. Base... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Slump in oil prices negative, but not a disaster The recent slump in oil prices has invoked memories of the 2015 crash, but the Canadian economy looks less vulnerable this time round. Back then, WTI had hovered at close to $100 for four years and... 27th November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Stronger investment intentions bode well, for now The third-quarter Business Outlook Survey revealed a rebound in firms’ investment intentions, which is consistent with machinery and equipment investment growth remaining close to 10% y/y. Moreover... 23rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Households squeezed by rising debt servicing costs Households’ debt service costs rose to 14.2% of incomes in the second quarter, the highest since 2008. The recent rise has been driven entirely by higher interest rates. Moreover, policy rate hikes... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Exports still lagging behind global demand The merchandise trade deficit narrowed to a 17-month low of $0.6bn in June, thanks to a 4.1% monthly rise in exports and a small fall in imports. But both moves were largely due to big swings in... 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Weakening investment intentions spell trouble Economic circumstances suggest that investment growth should be strengthening. Capacity utilisation is at a decade high, the unemployment rate is unusually low and wage growth is picking up. Machinery... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Yield curve not a perfect recession indicator in Canada The Canadian yield curve has flattened to its lowest level since the run-up to the late 2008 recession but, unlike in the US, it is not an infallible indicator for predicting economic downturns... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Household credit growth slows sharply Rising interest rates and the recent tightening of mortgage lending standards are now having a marked impact on mortgage lending, with the three-month-on-three-month annualised growth rate of mortgage... 29th May 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Households already being squeezed by higher rates Consumption growth was the key driver behind the Canadian economy’s recent strength, particularly in the first half of last year. Since mid-2017, however, retail sales volumes have largely stagnated... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Home sales slump worsening The further drop in home sales last month confirms that the slowdown in trend sales that began around a year and a half ago has worsened. Unfortunately, prospective home buyers and sellers are now... 20th March 2018 · 1 min read
