Canada Chart Pack Vaccinations lag the US Canada will receive only enough doses of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines to provide the equivalent of one dose to 16% of the population by the end of the first quarter. By contrast, even in the... 26th January 2021 · 9 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Fresh lockdowns present new downside risks The province-wide shutdowns recently announced in Ontario and Quebec raise the downside risks to our near-term forecasts, although the start of the coronavirus vaccination program last week provides a... 22nd December 2020 · 8 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Employment to decline in December The decline in restaurant visits in the past month suggests that over 100,000 jobs in the accommodation and food services sector were at risk even before most of the Greater Toronto Area moved into... 24th November 2020 · 9 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Restrictions weighing on the recovery The restrictions reimposed in Ontario and Quebec this month have weighed heavily on restaurant visits, but we think overall GDP will continue to recover so long as more draconian lockdowns are avoided... 26th October 2020 · 9 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Core inflation unlikely to rise further We expect an average of the Bank’s core inflation measures to remain close to 2% this year, before declining in 2020, as GDP growth falls below potential. An average of the Bank of Canada’s three core... 25th June 2019 · 9 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Employment gains set to slow The one bright spot over the past six months has been the strength of the labour market. The Labour Force Survey revealed a record-breaking 107,000 jump in employment in April. Even the more reliable... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Surveys remain consistent with slow growth The Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey showed that firms’ expectations for future sales improved only slightly at the start of the year. The future sales balance is still consistent with annual... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Markets right to price in rate cuts While our GDP growth forecasts are far below consensus, the narrowing and even outright inversion of parts of the yield curve in the past month suggests that investors also have little faith in the... 26th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Export prospects further deteriorate The decline in the global manufacturing PMI to a two-year low in January suggests that prospects for Canadian exporters have deteriorated further. On past form, the global PMI is broadly consistent... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Surveys point to growth slowdown The Bank of Canada’s fourth-quarter Business Outlook Survey revealed a sharp deterioration in firms’ expectations for future sales. In fact, the future sales balance dropped into negative territory... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Core inflation set to fall further Two of the Bank of Canada’s three measures of core inflation, CPI-trim and CPI-median, declined in November. As a result, an average of the three measures fell to 1.9%, the lowest in five months. Base... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Slump in oil prices negative, but not a disaster The recent slump in oil prices has invoked memories of the 2015 crash, but the Canadian economy looks less vulnerable this time round. Back then, WTI had hovered at close to $100 for four years and... 27th November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Stronger investment intentions bode well, for now The third-quarter Business Outlook Survey revealed a rebound in firms’ investment intentions, which is consistent with machinery and equipment investment growth remaining close to 10% y/y. Moreover... 23rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Households squeezed by rising debt servicing costs Households’ debt service costs rose to 14.2% of incomes in the second quarter, the highest since 2008. The recent rise has been driven entirely by higher interest rates. Moreover, policy rate hikes... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Exports still lagging behind global demand The merchandise trade deficit narrowed to a 17-month low of $0.6bn in June, thanks to a 4.1% monthly rise in exports and a small fall in imports. But both moves were largely due to big swings in... 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Weakening investment intentions spell trouble Economic circumstances suggest that investment growth should be strengthening. Capacity utilisation is at a decade high, the unemployment rate is unusually low and wage growth is picking up. Machinery... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
