BoE Watch Hawks to break rank This month’s MPC vote will probably be split for the first time this year. While only a minority will vote for a rate rise, the risk of a hike this year has risen. Indeed, Mark Carney will probably... 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Unanimous for one more month There is probably a greater chance of Angela Merkel becoming Prime Minister of Greece than the MPC raising interest rates this month. And while a couple of MPC members look set to respond to the... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Deflation and overseas risks to keep rate rise at bay Since June’s meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) comes just three weeks after the publication of the latest Inflation Report and recent data have not challenged its view that inflation will... 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Election just one reason to keep rates on hold We doubt that the Monetary Policy Committee would want to change monetary policy so close to a general election, especially when a new government might not even have been formed by the time of this... 5th May 2015 · 1 min read
BoE Watch “Noflation” unlikely to prompt rate cut We think that the deflation likely to be seen in the coming months will of the “good” sort, lasting only a short while and boosting households’ spending power. So we doubt that a rate cut – as floated... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Waiting for reassurance on wages The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted unanimously to leave interest rates on hold in February and looks set to sit on its hands over the next few months as CPI inflation descends into negative... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
BoE Watch MPC to tread cautiously as deflation approaches The chances of interest rates rising soon look even slimmer now that a spell of deflation is on the horizon. However, if we are right in expecting deflation to be brief and of the “good” sort, this... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
BoE Watch 2015 rate rise still likely despite oil price plunge Heightened uncertainty regarding how weak inflation will be in 2015 and signs that the recovery has become less broad-based are likely to mean that the MPC keeps interest rates on hold at January’s... 5th January 2015 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Real pay rises not big enough yet for rate hike While the dovish tone of the November Inflation Report suggested that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is likely to keep Bank Rate on hold for a few more months, the case for starting the process... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Case for inaction remains robust The current weakness of domestic price pressures and the euro-zone’s continued malaise suggest that the MPC is likely to keep Bank Rate on hold for a few more months. But the Committee is unlikely to... 30th October 2014 · 1 min read
BoE Watch No need to begin to “normalise” yet With both current and pipeline price pressures easing, the housing market cooling further and the international environment souring over the last month, it seems unlikely that any other MPC members... 2nd October 2014 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Weak inflation affords MPC more time We doubt that new dissenters Martin Weale or Ian McCafferty will manage to persuade any of the other seven MPC members to vote to raise interest rates at September’s meeting. The recent weakness of... 28th August 2014 · 1 min read
BoE Watch MPC’s judgement on wages key to rate outlook While a vote to raise interest rates does not seemimminent, the Inflation Report following the MPC’s meeting will give the clearestsignal yet as to whether a hike is likely before theend of 2014. In... 1st August 2014 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Split vote unlikely just yet The acceleration of the jobs market recovery and more hawkish comments from the Governor over the last month suggest that an interest rate rise before the end of the year cannot be ruled out. But... 3rd July 2014 · 1 min read
BoE Watch All eyes on the FPC While the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will leave policy on hold again at its meeting on 4th and 5th of June (announcement noon on the 5th), it is clear that some members are getting closer to... 29th May 2014 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Phase two of forward guidance won’t hasten rate hikes The Monetary Policy Committee’s decision on Thursday 8th May will be the first to be taken under the second phase of forward guidance. But we don’t expect that to have much of a bearing on its... 1st May 2014 · 1 min read
