BoE Watch Economy’s resilience to keep MPC on hold The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will take some comfort from recent data suggesting that the economy has maintained its momentum in Q4, while sterling’s recovery may have lessened the extent to... 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Economy’s resilience will probably stay the MPC’s hand The resilience of the economy in Q3, combined with a stronger inflation outlook, will probably be enough to persuade a majority of MPC members to leave rates unchanged at next week’s meeting. What’s... 27th October 2016 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Rebound in activity won’t prevent further policy easing The rebound in some activity data over the past month has led some to question whether the MPC jumped the gun with its bold package of measures in August. However, the loosening was no doubt one of... 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Will the MPC deliver this time around? With market participants having been disappointed by the Monetary Policy Committee’s inaction in July, expectations of a bolder and broader package of measures at next week’s meeting have grown. With... 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Why wait? The relatively calm market reaction to the EU referendum might suggest that there is no urgency for the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to deliver additional policy stimulus at its policy meeting on... 7th July 2016 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Remain vote would bring rate hike back onto agenda With even overseas central banks citing the EU referendum as a reason not to raise rates this month, the chances of anything from the Bank of England are nil. If the UK votes to stay in the EU, we don... 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
BoE Watch MPC to remain cautious ahead of referendum A policy change looks very unlikely this month. Not only will the MPC not want to rock the boat ahead of the EU referendum, but the economy still does not look strong enough to warrant a tightening of... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Brexit uncertainty to keep MPC on hold for a while yet Weaker-than-anticipated inflation, lingering uncertainty in global financial markets and concerns about the impact that the EU referendum is having on the real economy means that this month’s interest... 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Heightened uncertainty should ensure unanimous vote Recent developments are unlikely to have caused Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members to fundamentally change their view since they voted unanimously to leave rates on hold in February. Indeed... 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Inflation Report to signal rate expectations are too low The messages from this month’s Inflation Report will probably be pretty mixed. A lower profile for growth and inflation over the next few quarters should cement expectations that an interest rate rise... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Will 2016 be the year when interest rates finally rise? The fall in oil prices, a souring in global market sentiment, weaker wage data and some unfavourable revisions to GDP growth suggest that the chances of rates not rising until the second half of the... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Markets shrug off MPC’s warnings And so another year of rock bottom interest rates is set to pass us by. It is getting on for seven years since interest rates reached 0.5% and it is over eight years since we saw an interest rate rise... 3rd December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Services (Oct.) The slight bounce-back in the Markit/CIPS services survey in October brought moree vidence of what we expect will be a rebound in growth in Q4, after the slowdown in Q3. 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Inflation Report could warn markets have gone too far We expect mixed messages from this month’s Inflation Report. On the one hand, a lower profile for inflation over the next few months is likely to confirm that interest rates will not rise until well... 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
BoE Watch MPC to hold fire despite stronger labour market The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) does not seem too concerned by risks from China, while the recent pick-up in wage growth will worry the hawks on the Committee. Indeed, markets have probably gone... 1st October 2015 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Market turmoil to reinforce MPC’s dovish stance Last month’s MPC minutes and Inflation Report suggested that the Committee was in less of a hurry to raise rates than many had thought. And the recent market turmoil and commodity price falls are only... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
