BoE Watch An uncomfortable wait for Brexit clarity In normal times, the MPC would be preparing the ground for another interest rate hike. After all, pay growth has picked up far more sharply than the Bank of England had anticipated. But as it is still... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
BoE Watch MPC to wait for Brexit fog to lift The chances of an interest rate rise at the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) meeting from 0.75% on 1st November are pretty slim. We doubt the MPC will move again until the Brexit fog has lifted. 25th October 2018 · 1 min read
BoE Watch MPC to wait a while before hiking again The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is unlikely to increase interest rates at its meeting on 13th September so soon after the last rise. In fact, given our assumption that a Brexit deal will only be... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
BoE Watch MPC to press ahead with second rate rise in a decade While a vote to raise interest rates on 2nd August is unlikely to be unanimous, we think that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will press ahead with the second interest rate rise since July 2007. 26th July 2018 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Mixed data to keep the hawks in the minority An interest rate rise on 21st June looks unlikely. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will probably want to wait at least a few more months for news on the economy’s health before hiking rates. But... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
BoE Watch MPC to wait for confirmation slowdown is temporary A string of weak economic data, as well as comments by Governor Carney, have all but ruled out another interest rate hike on 10th May. Indeed, the MPC is likely to err on the side of caution until it... 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
BoE Watch MPC still on track for May hike With no Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting scheduled in April, its meeting on 22nd March will be the last opportunity for the MPC to lay the groundwork for another interest rate hike in May... 15th March 2018 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Inflation Report could strike more hawkish tone With the data continuing to surprise the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on the upside and the Governor sounding encouraged by progress in Brexit negotiations and a bit more upbeat on the outlook... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
BoE Watch MPC to wait a while longer before hiking again While the MPC is extremely unlikely to raise interest rates again at its meeting on 14th December, the key question is whether any of the nine committee members will vote for another hike so soon... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
BoE Watch MPC to press ahead with historic rate hike While it looks set to be quite a close call, on balance we think that a majority of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will vote in favour of hiking interest rates at next Thursday’s meeting, for the... 26th October 2017 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Risk of more hawkish tone than markets expect The MPC is unlikely to spring any surprises at its meeting on 14th September. However, the economy has performed broadly in line with its expectations. Moreover, the pound has fallen further since the... 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Sluggish GDP growth to keep hawks in a minority While the softer tone of recent economic data may not be enough to prevent another split on the Monetary Policy Committee at August’s meeting, it supports our view that the MPC is still a way away... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Political uncertainty clouds the outlook for policy With the General Election resulting in a hung parliament, there is a lot of uncertainty about the outlook for demand, Brexit and policy. As a result, the MPC is even more likely to sit firmly on its... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Q1 slowdown to keep MPC hawks at bay Weaker economic data and a rise in the pound is likely to silence some of the tentatively hawkish members of the MPC and mean that May’s Inflation Report strikes a relatively dovish tone. Nonetheless... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Softer data to keep the hawks at bay It may not be long before one or two Monetary Policy Committee members vote for a rise in Bank Rate. But with signs that the economic data have taken a bit of a softer turn since February’s Inflation... 9th March 2017 · 1 min read
BoE Watch A less challenging trade-off The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) faces a less challenging trade-off between supporting the economy and controlling inflation. It will probably upgrade the growth projections in its Inflation Report... 26th January 2017 · 1 min read
